<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8"?>
<feed version="0.3" xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#" xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xml:lang="en">
<title>Public Opinion</title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.sauer-thompson.com/" />
<modified>2013-05-20T03:35:33Z</modified>
<tagline>&quot;...public opinion deserves to be respected as well as despised&quot; G.W.F. Hegel, &apos;Philosophy of Right&apos;</tagline>
<id>tag:,2013:/1</id>
<generator url="http://www.movabletype.org/" version="4.01">Movable Type</generator>
<copyright>Copyright (c) 2013, Gary Sauer-Thompson</copyright>

<entry>
<title>&quot;a future akin to Europe&apos;s present&quot;?</title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.sauer-thompson.com/archives/opinion/2013/05/a-future-akin-t.php" />
<modified>2013-05-20T03:35:33Z</modified>
<issued>2013-05-20T02:28:12Z</issued>
<id>tag:,2013:/1.12054</id>
<created>2013-05-20T02:28:12Z</created>
<summary type="text/plain">Moir&apos;s cartoon is pretty accurate by you would guess that from business and political journalism. As we know the media’s commercial interest masquerading as news is not new and that a lot of the commentary is PR-driven churnalism. It&apos;s a situation of weakened media companies, reliant on corporate advertising, not...</summary>
<author>
<name>Gary Sauer-Thompson</name>
<url>www.sauer-thompson.com</url>
<email>thoughtfactory@internode.on.net</email>
</author>

<content type="text/html" mode="escaped" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.sauer-thompson.com/">
<![CDATA[<p>Moir's cartoon is pretty accurate by you would guess that from business and political journalism. As we know the media’s <a href="http://theconversation.com/australian-business-journalism-more-noise-than-signal-13996">commercial interest masquerading as news is not new </a>  and that a lot of   the commentary  is PR-driven churnalism. </p>

<p>It's a situation of weakened media companies, reliant on corporate advertising,  not only not scrutinising powerful business interests, but  pretty much acting as the cheerleaders for the interests of Australian business opposed to modernization.   </p>

<span class="mt-enclosure mt-enclosure-image"><img alt="MoirAAbbottNo.jpg" src="http://www.sauer-thompson.com/archives/opinion/2013/05/20/MoirAAbbottNo.jpg" width="500" height="324" class="mt-image-center" style="text-align: center; display: block; margin: 0 auto 20px;"/></span>
<a href="http://www.theage.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html">Alan Moir</a>

<p>The economic "analysis"  roughly works in terms of <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/swan-has-prepared-the-way-for-austerity-abbott-20130519-2juhp.html"> template. </a> This can be seen in the columns  of Peter Hartcher in the Fairfax Press.  He ends his   <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/seeing-sense-as-end-nears-20130517-2jrwb.html">Seeing sense as end nears</a> thus:  <br />
<blockquote>And in the longer run, Australia's public finances will be a problem. As the population ages, we face decades of severe strain and a future akin to Europe's present. It was a happy week for Australia because both sides of politics contemplated having to take responsibility for their decisions.</blockquote><br />
The template is this: We cannot afford the welfare state.  Greece beckons.  Austerity is the only way to avoid this catastrophe. Social democracy has to go as its goals can no longer be afforded.  <br />
</p>]]>
<![CDATA[<p> Sitting underneath this template is the view that the path to prosperity  is the extraction of mineral resources and growing grain and fibre with very light regulation.  It is a rejection of the social  view of investing in human capital,  a digital economy and sustainablity.  </p>]]>
</content>
</entry>

<entry>
<title>&apos;Safe as Milk&apos;: Really?</title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.sauer-thompson.com/archives/opinion/2013/05/safe-as-milk-re.php" />
<modified>2013-05-18T09:13:30Z</modified>
<issued>2013-05-18T06:15:57Z</issued>
<id>tag:,2013:/1.12051</id>
<created>2013-05-18T06:15:57Z</created>
<summary type="text/plain">The media commentary around Abbott&apos;s Budget reply has by and large been positive. The Canberra Press/Media Gallery is happy to remain at the level of political appearances---&quot;Abbott cleverly sidestepped Labor&apos;s booby traps&quot; etc--- and to take Abbott at his word about budget emergencies and the austerity medicine restoring Australia to...</summary>
<author>
<name>Gary Sauer-Thompson</name>
<url>www.sauer-thompson.com</url>
<email>thoughtfactory@internode.on.net</email>
</author>

<content type="text/html" mode="escaped" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.sauer-thompson.com/">
<![CDATA[<p>The media commentary around Abbott's Budget reply has  by and large been <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-05-16/crabb---budget-2013-reply/4694244"> positive. </a>  The Canberra Press/Media  Gallery is happy to remain at the level of  political appearances---"Abbott cleverly sidestepped Labor's booby traps" etc--- and to take Abbott at his word about budget emergencies and the austerity medicine restoring Australia to health after the virus  that is  Gillard Government has been <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/going-down-fighting-20130517-2jrw5.html">destroyed.</a></p>

<span class="mt-enclosure mt-enclosure-image"><img alt="budgetreply.jpg" src="http://www.sauer-thompson.com/archives/opinion/2013/05/18/budgetreply.jpg" width="500" height="360" class="mt-image-center" style="text-align: center; display: block; margin: 0 auto 20px;"/></span>
<a href="http://www.theage.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html">David Pope</a>

<p>John Wanna, in his <a href="http://theconversation.com/strong-rhetoric-underpins-abbotts-budget-strategy-14258">positive</a> review, does put his finger on the key  economic point:<br />
<blockquote>Much of Abbott’s economic strategy rests on a spike in consumer and business confidence upon the return of a conservative government. As economic activity picks up, revenues will improve further and restore the budget to balance. This may well eventuate, but it is an assumption — not yet fact. If any government squeezes the economy too hard through spending cuts or tax increases,  it risks tipping the economy into recession – </blockquote><br />
Is this a realistic assumption? Is it a plausible one? How will economic activity pick up with austerity economics? </p>]]>
<![CDATA[<p>Wanna doesn't say--other than to remind us that John Howard nearly tipped the economy into recession  when he made substantial cuts in 1996-97. The tone of the article suggests that Abbott will not be so silly  as to tip the Australian economy into recession. </p>

<p>That's misleading as the Coalition's central claim is that austerity will lead to economic growth.  Underpinning this is the hypothesis of expansionary fiscal contraction. According to this hypothesis austerity might have expansionary effects in cases where households trust government efforts and think that today’s sacrifices will translate into tax reductions in the future. These expectations on their future disposable income might induce them to increase consumption and investment in the short-term, leading therefore to expansionary effects.</p>

<p>Yet the  UK experience of so-called expansionary austerity has been  one of stagnation — similar to (but less severe than) the European experience, where limited monetary activism by the ECB has not even come close to offsetting massive unemployment and contraction in the periphery . It is a stagnation that America seems to be beginning to experience in the context of its embrace of expansionary austerity. </p>]]>
</content>
</entry>

<entry>
<title>bombast + humbug</title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.sauer-thompson.com/archives/opinion/2013/05/bombast-humbug.php" />
<modified>2013-05-20T11:59:45Z</modified>
<issued>2013-05-17T01:18:41Z</issued>
<id>tag:,2013:/1.12049</id>
<created>2013-05-17T01:18:41Z</created>
<summary type="text/plain">Both Tony Abbott and Matthias Gorman on Radio National Breakfast espoused austerity economics, which, they claimed , would lead to a anew age of prosperity. These claims (bombast and humbug were not contested by the journalists even though the flaws of this pre-Keynesian economics were covered over by the rhetoric...</summary>
<author>
<name>Gary Sauer-Thompson</name>
<url>www.sauer-thompson.com</url>
<email>thoughtfactory@internode.on.net</email>
</author>

<content type="text/html" mode="escaped" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.sauer-thompson.com/">
<![CDATA[<p>Both  Tony Abbott and Matthias Gorman on <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/">Radio National Breakfast </a> espoused  <a href="http://www.sauer-thompson.com/archives/opinion/2013/05/austeritys-sire.php">austerity economics, </a> which, they claimed , would lead to a anew age of prosperity. These claims (bombast and humbug were not contested by the journalists even though <a href="http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2013/jun/06/how-case-austerity-has-crumbled/?page=1">the flaws  of this pre-Keynesian economics</a> were covered over by the rhetoric of reaction that was full of  bombast and humbug.  </p>

<span class="mt-enclosure mt-enclosure-image"><img alt="PopeDParliament.jpg" src="http://www.sauer-thompson.com/archives/opinion/2013/05/17/PopeDParliament.jpg" width="500" height="320" class="mt-image-center" style="text-align: center; display: block; margin: 0 auto 20px;"/></span>
<a href="http://www.theage.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html">David Pope</a>

<p>The ABC journalists didn't recognize the morality play on offer---a Labor Government had spent too much on  frivolous policies, and it had  taken on too much debt. It must cut spending and reduce the deficit. The lurid excesses  of the past will stop under the responsible Coalition, whilst the pain of the austerity to purge  the ghastly excesses of a bad and rotten government is necessary to ensure the return of prosperity.  A golden age beckons. </p>]]>
<![CDATA[<p>I cannot see the return of  the Howard golden age of prosperity, given the  condition of the global economy.  Australia's slow economic growth means that government revenue  won't be rolling in as it did for Costello during the mining boom.  So the Coalition <a href="http://www.afr.com/p/national/budget/abbott_golden_age_thing_of_the_past_YQ0IEc3dfvXVPrDAUBEpBJ">will have to keep cutting</a> into, and rolling back,  the welfare state.  The Coalition keeps saying that a Coalition government would have to take ''unpopular'' decisions that would ''hurt'' people. </p>

<p>So we can expect more bombast and humbug from a   Coalition that reacts against Gillard Labor's reforms,  and  uses pre-Keynsian economics  to support and legitimate its politics of austerity that  will impact heavily on the working poor. You can here the  traditional  talking points   of <a href="http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674768680">the rhetoric of reaction</a> already:  “perversity” (the reform will make the problem even worse), “futility” (the reform will do nothing to solve the problem), and “jeopardy” (the reform will endanger some hard-won social gain). </p>

<p>These are the <a href="http://tannerlectures.utah.edu/lectures/documents/hirschman89.pdf">major polemical postures and maneuvers </a>likely to be engaged in by the Coalition and its corporate allies  who are setting  out to debunk and roll back “progressive” policies and movements of ideas.</p>]]>
</content>
</entry>

<entry>
<title>austerity&apos;s siren song</title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.sauer-thompson.com/archives/opinion/2013/05/austeritys-sire.php" />
<modified>2013-05-20T03:21:59Z</modified>
<issued>2013-05-16T09:56:12Z</issued>
<id>tag:,2013:/1.12048</id>
<created>2013-05-16T09:56:12Z</created>
<summary type="text/plain">Mark Blyth’s Austerity: The History of a Dangerous Idea looks at the ideas of those austerians who have succeeded in casting government spending as useless profligacy that has made the economy worse and centered the economic policy debate on budget on cuts to government spending. Austerity is the only way...</summary>
<author>
<name>Gary Sauer-Thompson</name>
<url>www.sauer-thompson.com</url>
<email>thoughtfactory@internode.on.net</email>
</author>

<content type="text/html" mode="escaped" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.sauer-thompson.com/">
<![CDATA[<p>Mark Blyth’s <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Austerity-The-History-Dangerous-Idea/dp/019982830Xhttp://">Austerity: The History of a Dangerous Idea </a> looks at the ideas of those austerians who have succeeded in casting government spending as useless profligacy that has made the economy worse and  centered the economic policy debate  on budget on cuts to government spending.  </p>

<p>Austerity is the only way to restore prosperity  is their claim. The idea  of “expansionary austerity,” the proposition that cutting spending would actually lead to higher economic growth, is what sits behind this claim. As the Business Council of Australia constantly reminds us confidence-inspiring policies ( ie.,  the sustainability of public finances  or budget surpluses) will foster and not hamper economic recovery, because confidence is the key factor. </p>

<span class="mt-enclosure mt-enclosure-image"><img alt="RoweDbudgetReply.jpg" src="http://www.sauer-thompson.com/archives/opinion/2013/05/16/RoweDbudgetReply.jpg" width="500" height="335" class="mt-image-center" style="text-align: center; display: block; margin: 0 auto 20px;"/></span>
<a href="http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO">David Rowe</a>

<p>Blyth argues that  in the current situation post global financial crisis  the accumulation of debt by the public sector throughout the industrial world has far more to do with the direct and indirect effects of financial distress than it does with government profligacy. Indeed, countries such as Ireland and Spain had more favourable records of government debt accumulation than even Germany before the crisis. He makes a strong case that at times such as the present, austerity can actually be self-defeating in that its adverse effects on growth exceed any direct benefits from reduced borrowing.<br />
 </p>]]>
<![CDATA[<p>He has a point, as the turn to austerity after 2010 was  drastic, particularly in European debtor nations. Greece , for instance, imposed spending cuts and tax increases amounting to 15 percent of GDP; Ireland and Portugal imposed 6 percent. The  United Kingdom’s economy shrank due to the austerity imposed by the Cameron Conservative  Government.  In these countries austerity did not lead to a surge in confidence nor enable  these countries pull themselves by their own bootstraps out of the quagmire.  It  had major adverse economic effects,  so much so that the IMF reversed its position on the idea of austerity actually boosting economic growth.  </p>

<p>The history of economic policy shows that governments have experimented with austerity, it has led to disaster, and yet a couple of decades later, their successors try again, with equally dismal consequences. The current lot run a morality tale about the need to reduce government debt by ending entitlements and hacking away at out-of-control government spending. In doing so they avoid the bad behavior of the private sector in the global financial crisis and the way that finance capital made taxpayers liable for banks’ morally hazardous behavior.  </p>

<p>It is faulty economics. Free market economic liberals acknowledge that economic crises  have happened, but they have thought of them as an inevitable hangover from previous economic exuberance. All that the state could do was balance the budget, and perhaps even raise taxes, to restore economic confidence. Under this theory, austerity was something like  allowing the economy to purge itself between successive bouts of overindulgence. The pain is necessary as it is  part of an inevitable cleansing process  to “purge the rottenness” from the system.   </p>

<p> Greece is the poster child</p>]]>
</content>
</entry>

<entry>
<title>the new normal in a post-GFC world?</title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.sauer-thompson.com/archives/opinion/2013/05/the-new-normal.php" />
<modified>2013-05-18T05:43:47Z</modified>
<issued>2013-05-14T21:06:58Z</issued>
<id>tag:,2013:/1.12043</id>
<created>2013-05-14T21:06:58Z</created>
<summary type="text/plain">The Gillard Govt&apos;s budget strategy is one that locks in its long-term social welfare reforms in education and disability in the context of the shortfall in tax revenues caused by falling commodity prices and a high Aussie dollar. This strategy also involves cuts in spending--eg., the baby bonus, university funding,...</summary>
<author>
<name>Gary Sauer-Thompson</name>
<url>www.sauer-thompson.com</url>
<email>thoughtfactory@internode.on.net</email>
</author>

<content type="text/html" mode="escaped" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.sauer-thompson.com/">
<![CDATA[<p>The Gillard Govt's budget  strategy is one that  locks in its  long-term social welfare reforms in education and disability in the context of  the shortfall in tax revenues caused by falling commodity prices and a high Aussie dollar. This strategy also involves cuts in spending--eg.,  the baby bonus, university funding, research incentives,  and clean energy funding.  </p>

<p>Taking money from tertiary education and giving it to high schools is  short sighted.  It suggests that the limits of  Australia's strategy  of decent public services + low taxes   has been reached in a a post-GFC world.  The days of easy revenue for federal governments <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/4690368.html">is over.</a> </p>

<span class="mt-enclosure mt-enclosure-image"><img alt="RoweDCurtaincall.jpg" src="http://www.sauer-thompson.com/archives/opinion/2013/05/15/RoweDCurtaincall.jpg" width="500" height="350" class="mt-image-center" style="text-align: center; display: block; margin: 0 auto 20px;"/></span>
<a href="http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO">David Rowe</a>

<p>It is also short sighted that <a href="http://www.arena.gov.au">Australia’s Renewable Energy Agency</a> – the independent institution charged with giving a kick-start to emerging renewable energy  technologies and supporting infrastructure – has had its overall funding cut and deferred.  What should have happened is a boosting  of its  the funds to enable the transition to a cleaner economy--eg., a <a href="http://reneweconomy.com.au/2013/solar-warrior-port-augusta-mayor-joy-baluch-dies-age-80-57352">solar thermal energy power station in Port Augusta.</a>   </p>

<p>The budget could have the funds by cutting  back on the  tax breaks for fossil fuels, subsidies  for the big miners and subsidies for irrigation farmers. The  programs supporting carbon capture and storage, and coal mining more generally, were  slashed. The former were all spin, as they were spruiked by the coal companies  in the mid 2000s as they tried to fend off carbon pricing and renewable energy support policies.</p>]]>
<![CDATA[<p>If the emphasis is on growth and jobs is at  the expense of a more sustainable Australia, then it is not clear how Australia's  manufacturing base is going to be strengthened to replace the  2015 mining investment run-down. There is still an incoherent roadmap of the Australian economy’s direction as the resources boom comes to an end  requiring Canberra to create a 21st century economy.</p>

<p>Austerity is happening, through a mixture of spending cuts in key areas and tax rises, but not the  neo-liberal shift to a smaller state.  The neo-liberal goal is  to attempt to bypass a democratic government to create an integrated global marketplace for financial and mining interests. It involves  using the crisis to further the economic reforms needed to  undermine  the social welfare model and to create a self-organizing  market  that would allow  for mobile capital flows across Australia's borders. </p>

<p>So an economic crisis  in Australia has to be manufactured, which is what most of the commentary in the mainstream press is doing with its attack on the Gillard Government for failing to deliver  the budget surplus that it had promised. They promised big on the surplus,  they didn’t deliver, they look inept. </p>

<p>The attack centred around an $18bn deficit---the government had a spending problem, not a revenue problem---  is designed to destroy the legitimacy of the Labor government so that it is dumped into the dustbin of history,  thereby enabling a  more compliant Coalition   government  to implement the  neo-liberal mode of governance more effectively in the form of the politics of austerity.  </p>]]>
</content>
</entry>

<entry>
<title>a flawed growth scenario?</title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.sauer-thompson.com/archives/opinion/2013/05/a-flawed-growth.php" />
<modified>2013-05-18T05:40:02Z</modified>
<issued>2013-05-14T01:53:43Z</issued>
<id>tag:,2013:/1.12042</id>
<created>2013-05-14T01:53:43Z</created>
<summary type="text/plain">An incoming Coalition is committed to the politics of austerity, given its economic mantra of “stop the taxes” , &quot;cut the debt&quot; and only run budget surpluses always. It is also committed to the supporting multinational capital--- Big Miners, the coal industry and the fossil fuel companies/generators--- by rolling back...</summary>
<author>
<name>Gary Sauer-Thompson</name>
<url>www.sauer-thompson.com</url>
<email>thoughtfactory@internode.on.net</email>
</author>

<content type="text/html" mode="escaped" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.sauer-thompson.com/">
<![CDATA[<p>An incoming Coalition is committed to the politics of austerity,  given its economic mantra of “stop the taxes” , "cut the debt" and only run budget surpluses always.   It is also committed to the supporting  multinational capital--- Big Miners, the coal industry  and  the fossil fuel companies/generators---  by rolling back the mining tax  and restricting renewable energy. They also plan to cut back the  taxation on corporate profits and personal income.   </p>

<p>This is part of the  decade-long fierce fight-back by the conservative right, especially in the Anglo-Saxon world against what it sees as environmental socialism.The Coalition's option is to adapt to climate change rather than give in to "socialism" to prevent it.  </p>

<span class="mt-enclosure mt-enclosure-image"><img alt="RoweDbusinessteat.jpg" src="http://www.sauer-thompson.com/archives/opinion/2013/05/14/RoweDbusinessteat.jpg" width="500" height="330" class="mt-image-center" style="text-align: center; display: block; margin: 0 auto 20px;"/></span>
<a href="http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO">David Rowe</a>

<p>This, it is claimed, will  prevent from Australia becoming an economic basket case like Greece,  and  this, in turn,  will  also ease the cost of living pressures  on those living in suburbia thereby enabling them to have an easier life. So there will be austerity  for  the populations to  bring national debt under control and a pro-growth strategy based on  dig baby dig. This represents the end  of  rising energy prices and squeezed living standards.  </p>

<p>Coal has a brilliant future. The good times  are just around the corner. Self-organising markets and business, with minimal public intervention and oversight, are the route to wealth generation, prosperity and jobs. </p>]]>
<![CDATA[<p>There's a possible alternative scenario   within thee self-organizing   free  market. Here's  possible alternative scenario. The world's top 200 fossil fuel companies are currently valued at $4trn, with $1.5trn of debt. That valuation implies they would burn all their carbon reserves, increasing global temperatures by at least 6C, with untold consequences for life on Earth. So the current valuations and business strategies could be self-defeatingly irrational – and $4trn of value could be suddenly halved. </p>

<p>What happens if China and India start cutting back on their use of coal  to generate  the energy  for their economic development because coal pollution makes their  cities unbearable to live in?  That  would mean them buying  less imported coal from Australia.  Doesn't that put constraints on the  plans of Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart to construct Australia’s biggest ever coal mines and billions of dollars of associated infrastructure in Queensland around the Galilee Basin? </p>

<p>Wouldn't that mean it becomes more difficult for the coal miners  to obtain the finance  for their capacity expansion and that their coal assets (eg., coal export terminals, mines and railways in Queensland and NSW). What if  the power generators are unable to raise raise capital to build new plants.  Doesn't this scenario mean  stranded assets? </p>

<p>So you can see the Coalition's gamble. They are betting on  China and India's ever increasing demand for Australian coal due to their ever expanding reliance on coal until 2050.   Yet  the market for coal is not looking good as India and China  increase their wind and solar capacity by putting ever  more incentives behind solar, wind, gas and nuclear.  </p>

<p>What if  coal fired power stations are retired and  no new coal fired power stations are  built?  Doesn't that mean a limited rise in the price of coal. Australia would be the hardest hit of any coal exporters because, as the Big Miners tell us,  it has the highest marginal cost. What then,  is the price per tonne  which the coal miners need  in order to ensure that their big projects are profitable?  </p>

<p>$87/tonne?   The price  reached $10/tonne in February 2013. It fell to $93/tonne in April. The trajectory is down. </p>]]>
</content>
</entry>

<entry>
<title>a &apos;horror page&apos; in our economic history?</title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.sauer-thompson.com/archives/opinion/2013/05/a-horror-page-i.php" />
<modified>2013-05-18T00:36:43Z</modified>
<issued>2013-05-13T03:59:56Z</issued>
<id>tag:,2013:/1.12041</id>
<created>2013-05-13T03:59:56Z</created>
<summary type="text/plain">It&apos;s hard to arouse much interest in the 2013 budget and its deficit. The latter has become a fetish. We know that government revenue is declining, and that this means the naive commentary that the deficit is caused by a profligate, wasteful Labor Government blowing the revenue from the mining...</summary>
<author>
<name>Gary Sauer-Thompson</name>
<url>www.sauer-thompson.com</url>
<email>thoughtfactory@internode.on.net</email>
</author>

<content type="text/html" mode="escaped" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.sauer-thompson.com/">
<![CDATA[<p>It's hard to arouse much interest in the 2013 budget and its deficit.  The latter has become a fetish. </p>

<p>We know that government revenue is declining,   and that  this means  the naive commentary  that the deficit  is  caused by  a  profligate, wasteful  Labor Government blowing the revenue from the mining boom and maxing the credit card  is too one sided.  </p>

<p>The Coalition  continue to  deny that Labor's fiscal activism in the form of a fiscal stimulus  insulated the Australia economy from  the external shock of the global financial crisis that would otherwise have produced a deep domestic recession.  The revenue decline will be a condition the Coalition has to deal with, if it gains power, because it is a consequence of the  recession in the global economy that is  due to the global financial crisis caused by Wall Street.  </p>

<p>Secondly, the Howard/Costello Coalition also went on a <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/challenge-of-an-ageing-nation-20130510-2jdb4.html">spending spree-</a>--- they actually spent, or gave away as tax cuts, a staggering 94 per cent of the windfall gains delivered by the China-driven mining boom's first phase.</p>

<span class="mt-enclosure mt-enclosure-image"><img alt="PettyBBudget.jpg" src="http://www.sauer-thompson.com/archives/opinion/2013/05/13/PettyBBudget.jpg" width="500" height="357" class="mt-image-center" style="text-align: center; display: block; margin: 0 auto 20px;"/></span>
<a href="http://www.theage.com.au/photogallery/opinion/bruce-petty-20090907-fdvy.html">Bruce Petty</a>

<p>The Coalition is contradictory: they are saying that they  will spend big on a family-centred welfare state and  to the middle-class,  as well as saying that they are committed to the politics of  harsh austerity and that the  era of ''universal entitlement'' is at an end. They wont reverse all those tax cuts that  Howard and Costello gave to the middle class, whilst their direct action plan  to achieve   the bi-partisan target of  a 5 drop in emissions  is  going  to be paid for by  taxpayers.  </p>]]>
<![CDATA[<p>The Coalition have yet to acknowledge that  the unusual strength of the Australian dollar and the breaking down of the historical correlation of the dollar and commodity prices has been due more to other countries debasing their own currencies and to capital flows  for the Australian dollar than to local actions  of a Labor Government in Canberra. </p>]]>
</content>
</entry>

<entry>
<title>the culture wars revisited</title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.sauer-thompson.com/archives/opinion/2013/05/the-culture-war.php" />
<modified>2013-05-15T22:12:51Z</modified>
<issued>2013-05-09T00:00:02Z</issued>
<id>tag:,2013:/1.12040</id>
<created>2013-05-09T00:00:02Z</created>
<summary type="text/plain">Nick Cater’s book The Lucky Culture And the Rise of an Australian Ruling Class is the voice of the Murdoch media in Australia, which controls 70% of the press and a fair slice of the screen. Cater speaks for the political power that is centred on big business, the Murdoch...</summary>
<author>
<name>Gary Sauer-Thompson</name>
<url>www.sauer-thompson.com</url>
<email>thoughtfactory@internode.on.net</email>
</author>

<content type="text/html" mode="escaped" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.sauer-thompson.com/">
<![CDATA[<p>Nick Cater’s  book <a href="http://www.harpercollins.com.au/books/Lucky-Culture-Nick-Cater/?isbn=9780732296292">The Lucky Culture And the Rise of an Australian Ruling Class</a> is the voice of the Murdoch media in Australia, which  controls 70% of the press and a fair slice of the screen.  Cater speaks for  the political power  that is centred on big business, the Murdoch global media empire,  elite private schools and the Liberal and National Parties.  </p>

<p>His book continues the culture wars--it promotes climate change denialism, winding back mass university access, funding state-led economic development through the construction of dams, highlights the cultural divide   and attacks the  impractical,  progressive  cosmopolitan inner city elites  as being out of touch with suburban Australia and favours endless economic growth.    </p>

<p>Cater  argues that in the first decade of the 21st century, a new “self-appointed ruling class” emerged in Australia, comprising university graduates who were “cosmopolitan and sophisticated”. These powerful inner city elites did not simply feel better off but held that they were better than their fellow Australians. Australia is under threat from  the elitism of a "morally snobbish intellectual class". Labor is part of a new social and political elite, a class of tertiary educated progressives who sneeringly  look down their noses at ‘ordinary Australians’. <br />
 <br />
Cater <a href="http://chifley.org.au/opinion/the-culture-wars-legitimate-battlefield-or-just-another-sneaky-right-wing-attack/"> says</a> that this is:<br />
<blockquote>A class that relies for status on cultural rather than financial capital cannot concede that wealth carries virtue, and resorts to attacking Rinehart’s cultural standing in the most personal terms.  It amounts to a crude assertion of cultural refinement … (on) how to handle money and how to arrange their hair.  In a society where net wealth is considered a poor guide to character, the sneer is an assertion of class superiority … In a country where cultural superiority becomes important, belittlement of others is an underhand form of self-aggrandisement, a habit that once adopted becomes almost impossible to break. </blockquote><br />
Cater, in  arguing for a narrowing of university access back to the standards of the 1950s,   supports a two-class system, with one set of rules for the conservative establishment and a different set of standards for their political rivals.  </p>]]>
<![CDATA[<p>Behind the culture war sits a neo-liberalism  of transnational capital that favours  the imposition of austerity regimes in which nation-states are used by the corporate elites as key drivers of neoliberal globalization. This mode of governance  criticizes democracy by taking the form of a politics that says that increasing taxes to fund social welfare spending for the poor destroys the  incentives for wealth creation through  hard work, enterprise and talent. This mode of  governance  aims to castrate democracy by insulating  economic policies from  democratic politics. </p>

<p>This politics reconfigures the social contract in the name of ending the age of entitlement and returning the budget  to surplus.  The welfare state is to be dismantled. Essential public services are  to be cut so that the rich may pay less tax.  The public realm is privatised and  the regulations restraining the ultra-wealthy  and the companies they control are made light. It makes a  virtue  of  the high levels of inequality in that it says that inequality encourages people to work harder,  and the bigger the gap, the more some people will strive to try to close it. It  exploits the language of Australian national identity to justify  the  dismantling of the welfare state.</p>

<p>When it comes to economic/social justice or democratic accountability, the state is presented by neo-liberals as a life-draining bureaucratic monster to be fought at every opportunity.   But when it comes to the military, defence, and  the  punitive, and  national security functions of the state, it is cast as the last bastion of civilization and freedom which brooks no qualification or oversight. </p>

<p> </p>]]>
</content>
</entry>

<entry>
<title>after the commodity boom?</title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.sauer-thompson.com/archives/opinion/2013/05/after-the-commo.php" />
<modified>2013-05-13T22:16:58Z</modified>
<issued>2013-05-06T04:41:40Z</issued>
<id>tag:,2013:/1.12036</id>
<created>2013-05-06T04:41:40Z</created>
<summary type="text/plain">Roy Green in Beyond the boom: have we frittered away our opportunities? asks a very good question: &quot;Where are jobs and growth to come from after the commodity boom?&quot; Improved productivity is central to rising living standards and sustainable economic growth especially when Australia is repositioning and competing globally as...</summary>
<author>
<name>Gary Sauer-Thompson</name>
<url>www.sauer-thompson.com</url>
<email>thoughtfactory@internode.on.net</email>
</author>

<content type="text/html" mode="escaped" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.sauer-thompson.com/">
<![CDATA[<p>Roy Green in <a href="http://theconversation.com/beyond-the-boom-have-we-frittered-away-our-opportunities-13901">Beyond the boom: have we frittered away our opportunities? </a> asks a very good question: "Where are jobs and growth to come from after the commodity boom?" </p>

<p>Improved productivity is central to rising living standards and sustainable economic growth  especially when Australia  is  repositioning and competing globally as a “high cost” economy. Consequently, living standards will be even more dependent in the future on increasing our rate of productivity growth, particularly in trade-exposed sectors. </p>

<span class="mt-enclosure mt-enclosure-image"><img alt="PettyBCompassion.jpg" src="http://www.sauer-thompson.com/archives/opinion/2013/05/06/PettyBCompassion.jpg" width="500" height="336" class="mt-image-center" style="text-align: center; display: block; margin: 0 auto 20px;"/></span>
<a href="http://www.theage.com.au/photogallery/opinion/bruce-petty-20090907-fdvy.html">Bruce Petty</a>

<p>Australia has had abundant previous experience of commodity booms, which have all ended badly, with lessons that produced considerable reflection. What Australian policy-makers  had to do was reflect on past mistakes  The short answer to Green's question is that the jobs and growth  will come from building a dynamic and competitive knowledge-based economy.<br />
</p>]]>
<![CDATA[<p>However, as Green  adds:<br />
<blockquote>Clearly, structural change is taking place throughout the world economy, as a consequence mainly of technology and business model innovation and the changing patterns of international trade and development. But it is equally clear that Australia has been so lulled into complacency by the resources boom that we are not taking as much advantage of such change as we could be...Even with the pick-up in productivity growth over the past year, it will be a huge challenge to compensate for terms of trade decline in a high cost economy with a continuing strong dollar.</blockquote> <br />
Australia has done so little towards building a dynamic and competitive knowledge-based economy based on  new technology and innovation.  The market changes associated with the deregulation of product and labour markets has shifted much of the jobs growth to casual work in low productivity sectors.  </p>

<p>The Coalition's policy behind the sound bite politics of   “Stop the boats, "climate change is crap”,  and “axe the tax”   is that the job of the federal government is to look after the interests of the big mining industry; an industry deeply hostile to climate change and clean energy policies. This fossil fuel industry  would scrap all subsidies for renewable energy and cancel all wind farm developments. Like  the state-based coalition governments, Abbott's  Coalition  remains stuck on  the policy that deems that renewables are costly and useless, and don’t reduce emissions, and that  the renewable energy target  should be killed or neutered. </p>

<p>Their coal dependency position is  “coal lock-in” due to  high capital costs and long assets life spans. That  means Australian citizens will be forced to absorb hundreds of millions of dollars in pollution control upgrades for outdated and obsolete coal power plants.    </p>]]>
</content>
</entry>

<entry>
<title>perhaps</title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.sauer-thompson.com/archives/opinion/2013/05/perhaps.php" />
<modified>2013-05-09T03:09:38Z</modified>
<issued>2013-05-03T04:05:22Z</issued>
<id>tag:,2013:/1.12034</id>
<created>2013-05-03T04:05:22Z</created>
<summary type="text/plain">Not so, according to Barrie Cassidy. He reckons that Gillard won the policy debate, but the Coalition may have won the politics. He argues that the Prime Minister abdicated her responsibilities to Tony Abbott, and that the Coalition, which has controlled the news agenda for years, had control of the...</summary>
<author>
<name>Gary Sauer-Thompson</name>
<url>www.sauer-thompson.com</url>
<email>thoughtfactory@internode.on.net</email>
</author>

<content type="text/html" mode="escaped" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.sauer-thompson.com/">
<![CDATA[<p>Not  so, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-05-03/cassidy-ndis-agreement/4666798">according</a> to Barrie Cassidy.  He reckons that Gillard  won the policy debate, but the Coalition may have won the politics.  He argues that  the Prime Minister abdicated her responsibilities to Tony Abbott, and that the Coalition, which  has controlled the news agenda for years,  had control of the policy agenda as well. </p>

<span class="mt-enclosure mt-enclosure-image"><img alt="POpeDNDIS.jpg" src="http://www.sauer-thompson.com/archives/opinion/2013/05/03/POpeDNDIS.jpg" width="500" height="356" class="mt-image-center" style="text-align: center; display: block; margin: 0 auto 20px;"/></span>
<a href="http://www.theage.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html">David Pope</a>

<p>I am not persuaded. The Coalition was pushed into a corner with no way to walk away and hide from the issue.  The disability people got what they wanted: a secure funding  source  that will partially pay for the NDIS and bipartisan support. That means the  Coalition will find it hard to renege at a later date because  they are  publicly committed to the national disability  insurance scheme.  </p>]]>
<![CDATA[<p>This doesn't  change  federal Labor's electoral situation. Mark Latham <a href="http://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2010/november/1288836098/mark-latham/no-exit">states</a>  the underlying weakness  succinctly:<br />
<blockquote>The shrinkage in Labor’s blue-collar base has left it juggling the demands of two irreconcilable constituencies. One comes from the outer suburbs, with a hard-nosed, materialistic attitude to politics. The other is entrenched in the inner city, taking an abstract, classically liberal approach to issues. This duality has left Labor vulnerable to wedge politics, controversies that set one constituency against the other.</blockquote></p>

<p>This emerges because the structurally changing economy --eg., the steady decline of manufacturing--- means that the aging unskilled blue collar workers becomes increasingly unemployable. We have  a coalition of blue-collar workers who feel under threat and middle-class professionals who feel financially insecure  shifting to the Coalition. They are shifting because  they reckon they have an insufficient stake in the present and future and express a nostalgic desire to halt the changes of recent years, to turn the clock back to an imagined gentler past.  </p>

<p>Latham argues that what  traditionally holds the two constituencies-the  blue-collar base and the liberal inner city,   together  in an open market economy is  nation-changing reform programs. Unfortunately, environmental sustainability is  still an inner-city thing, a world away from the aspirational outer suburbs, where the dream  is one of  4WDs in the (double) garage, ducted air-conditioning in multistorey dwellings and ostentatious entertainment and home appliances.</p>]]>
</content>
</entry>

<entry>
<title>NDIS--opposing voices</title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.sauer-thompson.com/archives/opinion/2013/05/ndisopposing-vo.php" />
<modified>2013-05-06T23:48:12Z</modified>
<issued>2013-05-02T00:43:06Z</issued>
<id>tag:,2013:/1.12033</id>
<created>2013-05-02T00:43:06Z</created>
<summary type="text/plain">The Bernie Brooks Myer episode over the proposed funding of the NDIS exposes the nature of business intervention into political debate. It is intervention from the position of self-interest in the form of profits before people. This ignores that the aim of the NDIS is to redistribute Australia’s considerable per...</summary>
<author>
<name>Gary Sauer-Thompson</name>
<url>www.sauer-thompson.com</url>
<email>thoughtfactory@internode.on.net</email>
</author>

<content type="text/html" mode="escaped" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.sauer-thompson.com/">
<![CDATA[<p>The <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/business/myer-in-social-media-storm-over-ndis-comments-20130502-2iu4v.html">Bernie Brooks Myer episode</a> over the  proposed funding of  the NDIS exposes the nature of business intervention into political debate. It is intervention from the position of self-interest in the form of profits before people. </p>

<p>This ignores that <a href="http://theconversation.com/myer-shouldnt-worry-about-the-ndis-it-means-more-income-earners-13750">the aim of the NDIS </a> is to redistribute Australia’s considerable per capita wealth to allow around 400,000 of the most disadvantaged in our community a better shot at earning a living.  To help pay for it--- Disability Care---the Gillard government will raise the Medicare levy — currently a 1.5 per cent levy on everyone's income tax — to 2 per cent--- thereby raising an extra $3.3 billion a year in extra federal revenue.   </p>

<span class="mt-enclosure mt-enclosure-image"><img alt="MoirANDIS.jpg" src="http://www.sauer-thompson.com/archives/opinion/2013/05/02/MoirANDIS.jpg" width="500" height="353" class="mt-image-center" style="text-align: center; display: block; margin: 0 auto 20px;"/></span>
<a href="http://www.theage.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html">Alan Moir</a>

<p>This is good reform and Gillard Labor has shown some political courage on this  issue with its proposal to increase the Medicare levy. It indicates that Labor are prepared to risk increasing their unpopularity in the pursuit of a significant and lasting legacy of reform.</p>]]>
<![CDATA[<p>I expect the  rhetoric by those opposed to this scheme on ideological grounds (smaller government and lower taxes) will take the form of the  small increase in the Medicare levy (ie.,  an increase in taxes)  beingthe reason the coal industry will soon die, towns will be wiped of the map, cheese will soon cost triple its current price,  the cost of living will skyrocket, the debt  is strangling a once great country and Australia will be bankrupted.  Etc, etc.</p>

<p>Or it will be along the lines of a nasty, arrogant Gillard playing wedge politics and <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/cynical-game-played-at-the-expense-of-the-disabled-20130501-2itcy.html#ixzz2S5z6tKYN">putting politics before policy.  </a>  It's all  <a href="http://theconversation.com/unseemly-tactical-skirmishing-over-the-disabled-13880">political game playing</a> by Gillard etc etc.  Better care for those with disability through an insurance scheme is ignored by this kind of rhetoric. </p>

<p>Yet the national disability insurance scheme will both  improve the lives of the people it helped and   bring into the workforce Australians who were previously unemployable for life---not just the 400,000 disabled Australians, but also their carers and family members.  </p>

<p>The Coalition is now prepared to back a modest increase in the Medicare levy to fund the NDIS. It was only yesterday morning that the Coalition was publicly opposing it. They had to shift as their position was untenable , even for them. The Coalition's position was  to support the scheme but not the means to pay for it and  opposing a levy while simultaneously touting a levy to pay for their paid maternity leave proposal.  They blinked and now provide conditional support and so undercut their message of needing to lower the tax burden and limiting the expansion of government.  </p>

<p>The core problem is the question of how to fund the remainder of the system. Hal Swerissen at the <em>Conversation</em> <a href="http://theconversation.com/coalition-support-for-levy-just-a-step-along-the-road-to-an-ndis-13890">says: </a><br />
<blockquote>The all up cost of the NDIS is currently about A$13.5 billion per annum. The states and the Commonwealth provide around A$6.2 billion at the moment, leaving a shortfall of around A$7 billion.The proposed increase in the Medicare levy raises about A$3.2 billion, to be quarantined in a special fund dedicated to support the NDIS. The rest will need to be found from savings and redirection within the Commonwealth budget.</blockquote><br />
The extent of this funding will determine the extent to which it operates as a fully fledged entitlement scheme which properly meets the needs of people with a serious and permanent disability, or one which is based on caps and rationing </p>]]>
</content>
</entry>

<entry>
<title>invoking the spectre of Greece</title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.sauer-thompson.com/archives/opinion/2013/04/invoking-the-sp.php" />
<modified>2013-05-06T23:49:04Z</modified>
<issued>2013-04-30T04:33:12Z</issued>
<id>tag:,2013:/1.12031</id>
<created>2013-04-30T04:33:12Z</created>
<summary type="text/plain">Another day. Another article in the economic scare campaign around the federal budget deficit, which has Labor has disclosed is due to a $12 billion projected revenue shortfall. That campaign is along the lines of a decade of deficits spelling a bleak future for Australians. Jakob Madsen invokes the spectre...</summary>
<author>
<name>Gary Sauer-Thompson</name>
<url>www.sauer-thompson.com</url>
<email>thoughtfactory@internode.on.net</email>
</author>

<content type="text/html" mode="escaped" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.sauer-thompson.com/">
<![CDATA[<p>Another day. <a href="http://theconversation.com/why-deficits-leave-us-ill-prepared-for-future-shocks-13753">Another article </a> in the <a href="http://www.rossgittins.com/2013/04/beware-one-eyed-budget-brigade.html">economic scare campaign</a> around the federal budget deficit, which has Labor has disclosed is due to a $12 billion  projected revenue shortfall.   That campaign is along the lines of a decade of deficits spelling a bleak future for Australians.  </p>

<p>Jakob Madsen invokes the spectre of Ireland and Greece as a possible future for Australia,   if the current deficit spending is maintained.  </p>

<span class="mt-enclosure mt-enclosure-image"><img alt="RoweDbudgetsurgery.jpg" src="http://www.sauer-thompson.com/archives/opinion/2013/05/01/RoweDbudgetsurgery.jpg" width="500" height="325" class="mt-image-center" style="text-align: center; display: block; margin: 0 auto 20px;"/></span>
<a href="http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO">David Rowe</a>

<p>Jakob Madsen says that it is important to steer the economy back to balanced budgets. His reason is that:<br />
<blockquote>Unless this spending path is broken, Australia could risk an unpleasant speculative attack on its currency at some point in the future. And it risks having little to fall back on if economic conditions substantially worsen. Australia’s budget has been in deficit since the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008. No serious corrective course of action has been taken to reduce it – even though deficits are usually run in recessions, not during an unprecedented mining boom.</blockquote><br />
His argument is  that it would have been much better if the government had saved up for a rainy day so that it would have the means available to stimulate the economy in times of economic weakness without being forced down the austerity path when it is the least desirable.</p>]]>
<![CDATA[<p>The mining boom is over, the economy is slowing down due to a high dollar and a  recession in Europe and the US,  Gillard Labor is tightening government spending whilst  the <a href="http://thefailedestate.blogspot.com.au/2013/04/of-human-bondage.html">shortfall in the budget is about 1% of GDP.</a>   </p>

<p>If the answer to budget deficits is to cut spending rather than  raise tax collections--and that  is the position of the austerity merchants--- why not eliminate some of the special concessions for Big Miners (eg., the  diesel fuel excise rebate), Big Aluminum (cheap power subsidies),  the fossil fuel industry, the  handouts to irrigators  and the  public subsidies for private health insurance?   </p>

<p>Secondly,  it is the economy growing more strongly over time that is the best way to increase the long-term budget balance. This can be done by  upskilling the workforce so that Australians became smarter at what they do and facilitating  the shift to a digital economy.   </p>]]>
</content>
</entry>

<entry>
<title>omissions in the current debate</title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.sauer-thompson.com/archives/opinion/2013/04/omissions-in-th.php" />
<modified>2013-05-03T04:40:03Z</modified>
<issued>2013-04-29T03:19:58Z</issued>
<id>tag:,2013:/1.12030</id>
<created>2013-04-29T03:19:58Z</created>
<summary type="text/plain">Stuart Hall has an interesting article on contemporary global capitalism, which he characterizes in terms of neo-liberalism, global interconnectedness, driven in part by new technologies, the dominance of a new kind of finance capitalism, the dramatic growth of inequality and a widening gap between those who run the system or...</summary>
<author>
<name>Gary Sauer-Thompson</name>
<url>www.sauer-thompson.com</url>
<email>thoughtfactory@internode.on.net</email>
</author>

<content type="text/html" mode="escaped" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.sauer-thompson.com/">
<![CDATA[<p>Stuart Hall has an <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/apr/24/kilburn-manifesto-challenge-neoliberal-victory">interesting article</a> on contemporary global capitalism, which he characterizes in  terms of  neo-liberalism, global interconnectedness, driven in part by new technologies, the dominance of a new kind of finance capitalism, the dramatic growth of inequality and a widening gap between those who run the system or are well paid as its agents, and the working poor, unemployed, under-employed or unwell. </p>

<p>He adds that: <br />
<blockquote>Neoliberalism's victory has depended on the boldness and ambition of global capital, on its confidence that it can now govern not just the economy but the whole of social life. On the back of a revamped liberal political and economic theory, its champions have constructed a vision and a new common sense that have permeated society. Market forces have begun to model institutional life and press deeply into our private lives, as well as dominating political discourse. They have shaped a popular culture that extols celebrity and success and promotes values of private gain and possessive individualism. They have thoroughly undermined the redistributive egalitarian consensus that underpinned the welfare state, with painful consequences for socially vulnerable groups such as women, old people, the young and ethnic minorities.</blockquote><br />
In Australia the mainstream media are full of <a href="http://theconversation.com/federal-budget-2013-why-our-unsustainable-structural-deficit-must-be-tackled-13723">articles</a> about  <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/loss-blows-12b-hole-in-budget-20130428-2imsv.html">budget  deficits, </a>increasing   <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-04-24/kohler-budgets-and-deficits/4648230">public debt </a> and how  the economy’s capacity for recovery is impaired by too much government borrowing.  These escalating obligations, they claim, will be passed along to our children and grandchildren, leaving Australia a poorer country.  The medicine needed is the politics of austerity. </p>]]>
<![CDATA[<p>What is always missing in this kind of  rhetoric by conservative commentators and politicians is that  the enlarged government deficits are  the consequence of the great financial crash, (GFC)  not the cause.  That crash was due to  private speculative debts---eg., exotic mortgage bonds financed by short-term borrowing at very high costs.  It is private debt of the banks that is strangling the economies of Europe and the US through the debt trap whilst Australia's s tax base has still not recovered from the GFC, and shows no sign of repairing itself.  </p>

<p>Debt functions  as part of  the politics of social class and social control.  The political power of business and large financial institutions, plus the momentum of the austerity campaign---too high a "debt-to-GDP ratio" will always, necessarily, lead to economic contraction----  suggests that  there will be damage to the economy  and human suffering in the near future along with a <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/abbott-not-gillard-is-the-true-class-warrior-20130428-2imis.html">significant redistribution of wealth upwards</a> rather than downwards.</p>

<p>Australia,  it is being argued by the austerity merchants,  cannot really afford a welfare state, humane working conditions, pensions, social and economic democracy. The Gillard Labor Government has been on a binge and it will make Australia an economic basket case.   Australia  must tighten its belt so that it lives within its means.  It'll be hard, but it's something the Coalition can and will do  for the sake of the grandchildren.  "Tighten its belt " means winding back the welfare state.</p>

<p>That's the snake oil  the austerity merchants are selling with their recession making economic package.  They are using the budget deficit  "crisis" as an opportunity to dismantle the social safety net provided by the welfare state. </p>]]>
</content>
</entry>

<entry>
<title>budget pressures: health care</title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.sauer-thompson.com/archives/opinion/2013/04/budget-pressure.php" />
<modified>2013-05-03T12:58:34Z</modified>
<issued>2013-04-26T03:40:39Z</issued>
<id>tag:,2013:/1.12027</id>
<created>2013-04-26T03:40:39Z</created>
<summary type="text/plain">The Grattan Institute&apos;s report on budget pressures shows that rising costs, a shortfall in tax revenues, declining minerals prices and big political promises could see a combined annual deficit of around 4 per cent of GDP by 2023. Pat Farmer The greatest single pressure on the budgets comes from growing...</summary>
<author>
<name>Gary Sauer-Thompson</name>
<url>www.sauer-thompson.com</url>
<email>thoughtfactory@internode.on.net</email>
</author>

<content type="text/html" mode="escaped" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.sauer-thompson.com/">
<![CDATA[<p>The Grattan Institute's <a href="http://grattan.edu.au/publications/reports/post/budget-pressures-on-australian-governments/">report on budget pressures </a> shows that rising costs, a shortfall in tax revenues, declining minerals prices and big political promises could see a combined annual deficit of around 4 per cent of GDP by 2023. </p>

<span class="mt-enclosure mt-enclosure-image"><img alt="FarmerPdeficit.jpg" src="http://www.sauer-thompson.com/archives/opinion/2013/04/26/FarmerPdeficit.jpg" width="500" height="360" class="mt-image-center" style="text-align: center; display: block; margin: 0 auto 20px;"/></span>
<a href="http://www.theage.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/pat-campbell-20120213-1t21q.html">Pat Farmer</a>

<p>The greatest single pressure on the budgets comes from growing health spending, which is is eating up more and more of government budgets, both state and federal.   The main cause of government health spending is due to people of all ages getting <a href="http://theconversation.com/tough-choices-how-to-rein-in-australias-rising-health-bill-13658">more and more expensive services per person, </a> and there is no reason  to think that this trend will slow down in the next ten years without major policy reform.<br />
</p>]]>
<![CDATA[<p><a href="http://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-health-rationing-13667">Health rationing </a> is going to become more explicit over the next decade as it is crunch time for health funding.    Doctors and their professional bodies, especially the AMA, wielded considerable power over decision making  and  they use it to ensure the health minister’s focus remained on providing acute care services. </p>

<p>They ensure the longstanding media traditions of promoting a medical rather than a health policy debate. The federal government’s own Department of Health and Ageing, or DoHA,  gives scant recognition to  the s<a href="http://socialdeterminants.org.au">ocial determinants   of health</a> in a policy area that continues to be dominated by hospitals and the medical lobby to the detriment of <a href="http://aphcri.anu.edu.au/sites/aphcri.jagws03.anu.edu.au/files/panel/416/primary_care_and_general_practice_final_v3.pdf">primary care.   </a></p>

<p>Since health, for the Coalition, is primarily a matter of personal responsibility and individual choices, we can expect cutbacks  to the health budget. Nor can we expect the Coalition to  address the problems caused by our fee-for-service based Medicare system. This  is a payment system that works for one-off episodic care but is not well designed to promote preventive care or chronic disease management which requires ongoing care across different health sectors. </p>

<p>So we will continue to have a systemic dysfunctionality  with prevention or chronic disease and, consequently,  a hospital system faced with increasing numbers of avoidable admissions every year. </p>]]>
</content>
</entry>

<entry>
<title>educational reform</title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.sauer-thompson.com/archives/opinion/2013/04/educational-ref-1.php" />
<modified>2013-04-29T03:19:32Z</modified>
<issued>2013-04-22T02:21:52Z</issued>
<id>tag:,2013:/1.12026</id>
<created>2013-04-22T02:21:52Z</created>
<summary type="text/plain">Australia does need educational reform to prioritise the lowest performing students and to have a funding system that is both good, effective and equitable. The current political battle is over both the school funding arrangements, the states as partners holding constitutional responsibility for public education; and greater principal autonomy, in...</summary>
<author>
<name>Gary Sauer-Thompson</name>
<url>www.sauer-thompson.com</url>
<email>thoughtfactory@internode.on.net</email>
</author>

<content type="text/html" mode="escaped" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.sauer-thompson.com/">
<![CDATA[<p>Australia does need <a href="http://theconversation.com/state-stoush-the-gonski-reforms-and-the-political-battle-ahead-9258">educational reform</a> to  prioritise the lowest performing students and to  have a funding system that is  both good, effective  and equitable.  The current political battle is over  both <a href="http://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-a-gonski-anyway-13599">the school funding arrangements,</a> the states as partners holding constitutional responsibility for public education; and greater principal autonomy, in curriculum, assessment and reporting.  </p>

<span class="mt-enclosure mt-enclosure-image"><img alt="MoirAGonski.jpg" src="http://www.sauer-thompson.com/archives/opinion/2013/04/22/MoirAGonski.jpg" width="500" height="320" class="mt-image-center" style="text-align: center; display: block; margin: 0 auto 20px;"/></span>
<a href="http://www.theage.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html">Alan Moir</a>

<p>The current arrangements and policies limits accountability and contributes to growing resources and performance gaps between rich and poor schools, with the disadvantaged students suffering most. <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-04-19/coag-fails-to-strike-school-funding-deal/4640110">CoAG failed to deliver. </a></p>]]>
<![CDATA[<p>The Gillard Government's $2 for $1 school funding deal for the states and territories  was rejected because the non-mining states lack  the  significant fiscal revenue to   contribute significant additional funding of their own and it also meant the states   losing a huge amount of control over how they spend this precious school funding. This goes to the heart of what federalism means in Australia. </p>

<p>The Coalition's position is that  Australia's school funding system doesn't need reform and  they will  retain current inequitable arrangements that reinforce  the ever-increasing <a href="http://inside.org.au/gonski-and-gillard-wont-fix-this-problem/">social and academic divide between schools.</a> The gaps between schools serving the rich and those serving the poor have grown, with the  gaps marked by growing differences in school size, student intake, resources and achievement.   </p>]]>
</content>
</entry>

</feed>
