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April 16, 2004
So it has come to this and this.

David Rowe, Peace Meal
Bush's support for Sharon will erode Arab support for an American agenda in the Middle East. You can kiss the Road Map goodbye. The neo-cons have achieved a major shift in US foreign policy, that had been in place since the 1960s.
The agreement does not bode well for a two state solution to the conflict.
Israel has actively fostered the spread of Israeli settlements throughout the West Bank in a pattern deliberately designed to prevent a viable two-state partition agreement. Sharon's strategy is to achieve a chain of Palestinian enclaves surrounded by Israeli settlements. It aims to compel the Palestinians to accept an autonomous entity mislabeled a "state", based on non-contiguous or barely contiguous enclaves in around 50 percent of the West Bank.
It is not a viable two-state solution. A state cannot be viable when it is made up of patches of territory with little political authority and control. Nor was the Sharon strategy ever intended to enable a viable Palestinian state.
The messsianic right-wing settlers and their supporters, claim the occupied territory as the Jewish people's legitimate and exclusive national heritage and completely reject the notion of Palestinian statehood in the territories. To achieve their Greater Israel, they have proposed a variety of ways to deal with the Palestinian inhabitants: "transfer" (in effect, ethnic cleansing), limited residency rights, Jordanian citizenship, and resettlement in Egyptian Sinai.
They, and their supporters such as Finance Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, see the growing Israeli Arab population (ie., Palestinian Arabs with Israeli citizenship who live within the State of Israel) as an undermining the two-state solution. This was seen as the way to preserve Israel as a democratic Jewish country. The Israeli Arabs who constitute the "real" demographic timebomb. The only realistic solution is the transfer or disenfranchisement of all Palestinians west of the Jordan River.
That right wing needs to be prevented from gaining control of the Israeli state.
A more fine grained analysis of the implications of Bush's letter can be found here. And over here Jonathan argues that Bush left himself lots of wriggle room, that Bush's support may help to isolate the settlers and Likud right wing, andthat more pressure would be placed on Sharon to withdraw from Gaza.
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It may be mere election politics, of course - sewing up the retiree vote in Florida for the GOP. I'm hearing the neocon goal of a sustainable US presence in the Arabian Middle East in mutually supportive embrace with a strategically powerful Israel is the whole idea, but I'm not sure driving the desperate Palestinians into Hamas's arms whilst Iraq remains wholly unmanageable is good mid-term thinking. It makes the position of professed US allies that bit harder to maintain, too. All the costs of isolationism with all the costs of interventionism combined, sorta thing. Bad policy on all counts, for mine.