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September 07, 2005
Well, Telstra has become a hot political potato. Suprisingly so, as the Howard Government's T3 bill for privatisation is being introduced into Parliament today. Little time has been allowed to the opposition to look at the legislation in the House; or for the Senate to take evidence and review the legislation through its committee system. The Government's political timetable is very tight as it wants to get out of owning Telstra at all costs.
The political temperature over T3 has risen for two reasons. First, Telstra has leaked the extent of the poor quality of the telecommunication infrastructure, an aging workforce, and the need to keep dipping into reserves to pay big dividends to keep the share price up.

These are well known problems and the previous spin (by Telstra and the Howard Government in unison) about things going very well in improving services has been blown open by Telstra.
That does create a problem for the 'great deal' spin by the Nationals, as the ALP points out. Their $3billion represents the additional investment in operating and capital expenditure that should have been spent over the past 3-5 years. Maybe the Nationals will now turn their attention away from the $3billion they scored, and shift to ensuring that the new regulatory regime is a good one. John Quiggin offers some advice:
The only sensible policy option still available to us ...[is]...selling off the peripheral bits of Telstra (Foxtel, Bigpond and perhaps the mobile network) and renationalising the rest.
The second reason for the fallout between Telstra and the Government is Telstra's strategy to influence the regulatory regime accompanying T3. The company has highlighted the impact of regulation on Telstra and its ability to compete and continue to cross-subsidise the bush.
Telstra wants a light regulatory regime not a competitive one and so it is spilling the beans. Telstra argued that the proposed regulatory regime is daming the flow of cash that have supported its ability to make sub-economic investments in the bush. It is facing steady market share losses in mobile phones and an accelerating leakage of revenue from its copper-based fixed line network. Consequently, its earnings will continue to fall--7 to 10% this year.
It is not a convincing argument. It is competition not regulation that is challenging Telstra's market dominance. It is Telstra nearly doubling its charges on its fixed line network that have caused people to leave the fixed line network, not competition. Telstra needs to be regulated because it is the dominant player in the industry with a track record of anti-competitive conduct and bad governance.
Yet Telstra, as John Durie pointed out in yesterday's AFR under the new regulatory regime the Howard Government retains the Ministerial power to have discretion over the terms, including pricing under operational separations plans. This sidelines the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission. The Howard Govermnment is also proposing to leave intact existing powers to appoint more directors to the board after the sale.
Instead of concentrating on this kind of bad public policy Telstra has been transparently using the Telstra share price as leverage against the Government, to undermine the T3 process if Telstra doesn't get its way on regulation. War has been declared with Canberra as Telstra sets about stripping value from the Government's shareholding. The share prices has dropped 14.2% since Trujillo came on board with almost $9 billion being wiped off the market value of Telstra.
Instead of this scorched earth strategy with Canberra to ease the regulatory regime, Telstra should really be concentrating on reducing costs and improving product and service delivery so that is better prepared for the new competitive regime, given the rapid switch by consumers from fixed-line to mobile phone calls. Telstra has a record of poor services, bad customer relations, and innovation to ADSL-2 broadband and wireless broadband.
The Australian Securities and Investments Commission has launched an investigation into Telstra on the grounds of a breach of disclosure laws. Material information---that Telstra would be unable to maintain its previous level of dividend---should have been disclosed to the ASX as well as the Government.
Telstra is not really playing it straight. They are using the regulatory regime as an excuse for the continued loss of market share due to bad business decisions in the past.
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I've said my position on Telstra in the past I think, so I won't readvocate it again now.
JQs position is pretty much what I said though
"The political temperature over T3 has risen for two reasons. First, Telstra has leaked the extent of the poor quality of the telecommunication infrastructure, an aging workforce, and the need to keep dipping into reserves to pay big dividends to keep the share price up.
These are well known problems and the previous spin (by Telstra and the Howard Government in unison) about things going very well in improving services has been blown open by Telstra. "
You're exactly right. People have been saying these problems for years and one pov is 'its only now coming to the govts attention - where have they been'.
My old man thinks it is enough to bring the government down, do you?