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March 02, 2006
I dunno about Iraq. I'm uneasy about the way it is being reported. It doesn't quite add up.
It's reported in the media as sectarian violence in which Shi'ites and Sunni's tearing one another apart. I know that is going on, but why would they destroy themselves? I know that al Qaeda is playing a violent hand, but all the violence cannot be the work of al Qaeda.

Mike Thompson
The 'Iraq's tearing themselves' story doesn't quite dd up. Nor does the argument that American, British or Australian troops are there to keep the peace, and that the occupation forces are the only bulwark against civil war. The invade-and-stabilize paradigm (in Iraq and Afghanistan) replaces brutal dictatorships with failed states.
So what's going on in Iraq?
To keep my bearings I stay with an 'insurgency/resistancescenario that aims to end the US occupation' narrative in which the Americans will leave. This helps me make sense of the chaos, even though I know that it doesn't make sense of the sectarian violence. I don't know where to go to my find my unease addressed. Some over at Larvatus Prodeo appear to accept the chaos as historically inevitable. Juan Cole runs a civil war scenario in an account that highlights President Bush's declining popularity. He says:
Tactically, strategically and politically Bush now finds himself in the worst of all possible worlds. With Americans increasingly fed up with the Iraq debacle, he needs to start drawing down troops soon, but he can't do it while the country teeters on the brink of civil war. If civil war does break out, a U.S. withdrawal will look even more like cutting and running -- under these circumstances, not even Karl Rove will be able to figure out a way to get away with simply declaring victory and going home. Yet if American troops stay, they have no good options either. . ."
That's all true. Bush's recent rhetoric about things going well towards the formation of a unified Iraq is pie in the sky. Its all about President Bush protecting Americans from Osama bin Laden tailored for the US audience.
Still, I have my doubts around Cole's civil war sceario. I suspect that some group is trying to lay down the conditions for civil war by blowing up the Golden Dome, which then sets Shi'ite and Sunni against one another in terms of a vicious cycle of violence. Who is creating the conditions so that the country tetters on civil war? Why would Sunnis blow up the Golden Dome---a Shi'ite mosque? They would know the consequences of that--horrible revenge reprisals for the Sunni's. Why would you chose to do that to your own people?
The Washington Post says that attacks on Shiite and Sunni holy sites had been rare in Iraq until last Wednesday, when bombers blew the gold-plated top off the shrine in Samarra, a Sunni city about 65 miles north of Baghdad. That attack unleashed sectarian warfare in Iraq. Who blew up the shrine in Samarra? Why would the Shi'ites do that? They are already in a powerful position. How would the chaos of sectarian violence benefit them? It cannot be them.
See why I have doubts and puzzlements? And I haven't even mentioned the death squads.
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Although the Al Askari Mosque is in heavily Sunni Samarra, it is a Shiite mosque holding the remains of a couple of Shia imams. (Shiites believed that the imams were the rightful heirs of Muhammad, while Sunnis believed in the caliphs.) So to answer your questions, Shiites wouldn't do that, and it was probably done by Sunnis. (By the way, Osama bin Laden is a Sunni.)
As for why Sunnis would blow up a Shiite mosque with the threat of reprisals hanging over their heads like the sword of Damocles, it's fairly obvious. Threat of reprisals hasn't stopped Palestinian terrorists from attacking Israeli targets. If you feel like you're an oppressed people where your options are acting out violently or taking your oppression and liking it, most groups tend to go for the violent option. The Sunnis have been going for that option in the past and blowing up a mosque was just taking it to a logical expansion.
What's going on is the surfacing of tensions that were formerly suppressed by a secular dictator who was only nominally a Muslim. Just imagine, if there were no Israel to serve as a pesudo-unifying cause, the Arab world might devolve into several Sunni-Shiite wars.