December 04, 2006
I'm going to be in a CoAG meeting all day in Canberra so I will not be able to follow the news around lunctime about the renewal of federal ALP in an open ballot at a specially convened meeting. Nor will I be able to see the start of Question Time. And I've been too busy trying to deal with viruses, getting my site back up and pre CoAG meetings to follow those studying the tea leaves (polls, body language, rumours) for signs and portents of what might happen today.
Some say you have to watch the eyes not the lips to know what's going on. Others say the 30 uncommitted MP's on Friday are down to 10. Philip Coorey in an op-ed in the Sydney Morning Herald reckons the blood fight is really about hatred and frustration. That is cynical reason.

Anthony Weldon
John Button, writing in The Age, says that one thing is clear. If the Rudd-Gillard team wins by a handful of votes, it is a result. If Kim Beazley wins by a handful of votes, it solves nothing. Many of those who reckon they can read the eyes --- say it is still too close to call.
In contrast Peter Van Onselen, writing in The Sydney Morning Herald, says that:
Labor's most important state at the next election won't be Queensland. It will be Western Australia, Beazley's home state. At the 2004 election Mark Latham lost two seats there (Hasluck and Stirling) and almost lost two more (Swan and Cowan). With Beazley at the helm and unhurt by a challenge, Labor could have reasonably expected to win back those two seats and possibly two more (Canning and Kalgoorlie).With a new leadership team and an embarrassed and ousted Beazley, Labor will be lucky not to lose Swan and Cowan. West Australians are a parochial bunch. So instead of needing 16 seats to form government, Labor may need to pick up 18 seats after WA losses. Beazley would have been looking at needing 16 seats with the real possibility four of them would be won in the west.
The Canberra Press say that it is breaking for Rudd and Gillard. Does that renewal mean a further breakdown in the factional system? Does that mean a shadow cabinet based on talent not factional representation? Will Gillard gain Treasury? Will it mean new policies? New directions?
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Well then, I wonder when my new Bicycle will arrive.