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August 22, 2007
We haven't seen much in the way of discernible campaign strategy from either side of federal politics this week. Not directly anyway.
Howard hasn't been able to do much about Rudd, so he's taken Textor's advice and is apparently running against the states instead. Naturally the states are unimpressed, but it would be interesting to know how the state opposition parties feel about being frozen out of the nation's political future.
I wonder what they think of the prospect of being demoted to local council status? Or being made redundant altogether?
While the superficial level of things had a field day with Rudd's little accident, Howard was putting the finishing touches on a set of quite strange ideas. Who is his target audience here?
Among other things, political leaders are important symbolic figures for what we're accustomed to call ideologies. The need support from other public figures to build and keep momentum. No matter what we may think of Alan Jones, Andrew Bolt, Kevin Donnelly or Christopher Pearson, they've all contributed to Howard the Movement in their own ways. They've also put some distance between Howard the politician and themselves recently.
One by one they don't amount to a lot of influence, but in aggregate their loss is quite substantial.
As Gary pointed out, the bigger ideas in this latest announcement are recycled old ones. Preaching to the converted on economic management.
Meanwhile, Howard has effectively told his state coalition partners to start updating their CVs. Not the sort of thing that's calculated to encourage his supporters at a state level, or the constitutionalists who've been so important to him over the years.
Nobody worth their marketing degree would suggest that ordinary Australians will start calling themselves aspirational nationalists anytime soon. Unless they were joking. So he's not pitching to his usual battler demographic.
The pork barrel initiative is a tried and true strategy for both sides that usually serves incumbents very well. But it's not an overly bright way of keeping your issue focused buddies onside, or those state-level friends with medium or long term futures in mind. Marginals might get you re-elected, but if leadership of something substantial is your goal, surely you'd want to keep that something relatively intact?
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Lyn,
The editorial in today's AFR is equally critical:
And:
The editorial concludes by saying that, by abdicating their responsibility to lead the nation in making federalism work better for the benefit of ordinary people, Howard and Costello are leaving the way open for Rudd to seize the opportunity.
My judgement is that Rudd's already seized that opportunity firmly. He is working with the states in continuing competition reform from where Keating left off.
In terms of electoral strategy I guess that Howard has little choice to ramp up the conflict. He's been backed into a corner by Rudd and the states working co-operatively on this and that, and so he's had to come out throwing punches left right and centre.