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September 04, 2007
Denis Shanahan's response to a new poll has come to resemble the worm of a certain section of the electorate. This week there's a big dip in his worm response, but he's still managed to discover the ultimate strategy, the big campaign move that could get Howard over the line.
Shanahan thinks Howard should call an election.
So there you go. The one thing that's guaranteed to bring Rudd to his nerdy little knees is the realisation among Australians everywhere that this is no rehearsal, we're not pretending anymore. Apparently standing in the polling booth, pencil stub in hand, we will all consider how swimmingly things have been going for the past decade, how wealthy and secure we all feel, and we'll vote coalition. At crunch time we'll be completely rational about this.
As much as it's become standard practice to check how Shanahan's spinning things each fortnight, it's also become standard practice for commenters to analyse his analysis. Robster of Brisbane says "It looks like the bandwagon effect is beginning to kick in. Voters have got used to the idea of a change and are now starting to welcome it."
Some are more welcoming than others. Our adversarial political system spills way beyond parliament. But the idea that voters have become used to the idea of change is becoming observable now.
Over at Blogocracy andre of Adelaide says "There must be a lot of ex Liberal voters out there. If they are anything like me their voting intentions are set and everything is perceived through that prism."
Bearing in mind that there are a few political staffers posing as common or garden commenters, these two suggest that there's a sense of inevitability about this election. We've given up waiting for Rudd to stuff up and now we're waiting for Howard to put us out of our misery.
The notion that everything, including the campaign proper (will we be able to tell when it starts?) is perceived through the prism of fixed intentions is an interesting one. Assuming we're also perceiving the polls through that prism they're more than just a vague indication of voter intention a long way out from an election. They're more like a quantification of the national mood that reinforces that mood every time they're released.
In other words, if you intend to vote Labor you can be comforted by the knowledge that you're far from alone. You must be doing the right thing if so many others are doing it.
Comments from the coalition side of the opinion fence also have that air of inevitability about them. On the whole they're a little less shrill, a little more resigned and starting to refocus on 2010. Speculation is moving from who might replace Howard, to who will raplace him, and that's not a happy conversation among coalition devotees.
For an outlier result this poll has had an amazing impact. One more like this and Mr Howard should perhaps stop listening to Mr Textor and heed Mr Shanahan. It's unlikely to happen, but at least an earlier election might arrest some of the momentum and preserve the senate majority.
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I think there is quite a few born again labor voters out there.
Then theres the fence sitters who just think its time for a change.
And also those that wouldn't normally vote labor but surmise that Ok Oz is in a good position financially and can afford a few years of labor so if it works out fine and if it doesn't it will be obvious and they will get tossed next time.
Howard standing next to Bush at present is about the worst thing he could do.
Too early to be calling it a landslide I think.