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March 12, 2005
Syria's tactic appears to be one of drawing out its military withdrawal from Lebanon so as to break the unity of its Lebanese opponents.
Stavro
Will the Syrian retreat reopen the sectarian (Christian-Muslim) divisions of the 1975-1990 Lebanese civil war? Will Lebanon once again fall into the abyss?
The half a million Lebanese Shias who marched last Tuesday did pose a challenge to President George Bush's project in the Middle East, and to his demands for a Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon and the disarmament of the Hizbollah guerrilla movement.
Robert Fisk asks a good question:
"So what did all this prove? That there was another voice in Lebanon. That if the Lebanese "opposition" - pro-Hariri and increasingly Christian - claim to speak for Lebanon and enjoy the support of President Bush, there is a pro-Syrian, nationalist voice which does not go along with their anti-Syrian demands but which has identified what it believes is the true reason for Washington's support for Lebanon: Israel's plans for the Middle East."
Will the Syrian military retreat to the Syrian side of the frontier, or will they sit in the Lebanese-Armenian town of Aanjar, on the Lebanese side?
Update
The anti-Syrian pro-Rafik Hariri democratic movement has responded to the pro-Syrian movement with a huge demonstration.Abu Aardvark has some comments on the way the media are interpreting these opposing crowds in Lebanon and their political meaning.
The Heed Heeb observes:
"The size of the Hizbullah and opposition demos should also put paid to the theory that either side was manufactured ex nihilo by foreign interests. It simply isn't possible to mobilize crowds that size in a nation of four million without genuine popular support. In fact, as Mary Wakefield points out (via Issandr), there are two legitimate popular movements in Lebanon right now, both of which are well organized and have closely studied popular protests in other countries. The debate over Lebanon's future has been unleashed, and although each side might look to allies in the outside world for support, it is fundamentally a Lebanese debate."
A Lebanese debate about what?
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