August 25, 2006
This is a good judgement about Lebanon by Amir Taheri in an article entitled The proxy war in Prospect:
The mini-duel in Lebanon is the first of many battles likely to be fought in the broader war for reshaping the middle east, in the wake of regime changes in Afghanistan and Iraq. As things stand, Lebanon has an even chance of falling into either of the rival Iranian and American camps. The American camp could still win, provided the US rallies its western, Arab and Lebanese allies in support of the Siniora "project for peace." This would mean shifting the focus in Lebanon from the Arab-Israeli conflict to the task of building a modern and democratic Lebanese state that, while friendly with the west, would understand Lebanon's historical vocation as a buffer between rival powers. But if Lebanon falls to Shia jihadism, other Arab countries, starting with Iraq and Bahrain, could quickly follow. That could spell the end of Bush's dream of a democratic "greater middle east."The Israel-Hizbullah duel, a proxy war between two visions of the middle east, has ended in a draw---at least for now.
Israel is seen as the instrument being used by the US to carry out America's middle-eastern policy with Hizbollah being able to provide a lasting and durable challenge to US-Israeli hegemony in the region. This conflict is not going end soon.
Paul Rogers confirms this when he says at Open Democracy:
...the geopolitical significance of Persian Gulf oil reserves remains a key aspect of US strategy in the middle east. The Persian Gulf simply must be controlled by the United States, and, with the current establishment of permanent US military bases in Iraq, this makes a wholesale withdrawal from Iraq highly improbable in the next few years.Second, it is entirely unacceptable that Afghanistan should become once more a free zone for al-Qaida and other Islamist paramilitaries to train and conserve their resources. The United States will not withdraw from that country, and the insurgency will most likely grow.
This suggests a long drawn-out war.
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