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November 13, 2006
Though the battle against the Sunni minority never went all that well, the U.S. occupiers managed to keep a lid on the chaos with the help of their Shi'ite allies. However, the terms of the conflict have shifted with the Shi'ite majoirty now increasingly at odds with the Americans. That makes life difficult for the US occupiers.
Peter Brookes
Does that imply that the war is simply unwinnable? It sure looks so since the U.S. occupation is basically being defeated by the near-complete absence of support from the Iraqi people. The chaos that exists is one of a Hobbesian world. It will worsen until the occupiers leave. Iraq is a no-win situation.
The US has unleashed mayhem and strife that has now assumed it's own momentum. As Mathew Yglesias observes:
As Kurds and Shiites both have, in the very recent past, been subjected to incredibly brutal repression by a Sunni-dominated central government. They, not unreasonably, fear the return of such repression. Sunni Arabs, meanwhile, have an also-not-unreasonable fear that Kurds and Shiites will, in their desire to avoid a return to repression, engage in similar repression.
In Australia John Howard has ceded his exit strategy to Bush, and so effectively surrendered it to the Democrats who will now largely determine America's eventual departure from Iraq. The Howard Government, unlike the U.S. political establishment, has yet to come to the realization that the war, as it is presently being fought, cannot be won. At least they have dropped the talk about transforming the Middle East being as simple as "taking out Saddam and watching a thousand flowers bloom."
There has been one Liberal voice that has addressed this chaos issue. The concerns about Iraq led Russell Trood, a Queensland senator and a respected foreign policy academi before he entered politics, to make this judgement:
There is some danger that we might end up in a long war of attrition that could intensify divisions within Iraqi society, sap America's strategic energy and not lead to a resolution that will stabilise Iraq...It may well be that a solution to the situation will not be found just within Iraq itself but will involve participation from the key regional players and perhaps the wider international community. As yet there is no strategy to achieve this, but it may be something that the US President's Iraq study group will recommend.
This was voiced during an interview with The Bulletin: about a month ago. It is currently being suggested by Tony Blair.
Well it's either that or Leviathan--- in the form of a strong man. The endgame in Iraq approaches.
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