"Labor is currently expected to retain between 30 and 40 lower house seats after the 2013 election."

Though an Abbott government is extremely unlikely to command absolute control of the senate,it might well get effective control by forming closer ties with a right-leaning independent or two

I agree . The question of who will form government in the next federal election has ceased to be a matter of interest. What matters is the make-up of the Senate.

There have been positives and negatives from the ALP government - almost a good government.
The biggest positive has been, still is, that it is not the COALition.
The ALP is the better choice for 90% of Australians and probably, although not absolutely necessarily, we will find out why next year by direct contrast with a Coalition government that will be a disaster in reality but will be painted otherwise in the media. The bullshit will be knee deep.
Rupert and Gina and mates control that narrative.
All we can do is continue to speak out, support the Greens as the best option from the 3, and hold our noses as we nosedive.

BTW, unlike many in the blogworld I reckon we will see at least 2 terms, maybe 3 or 4, for the COALition as the media continues its partisan bias, a sows ear will be described as a silk purse and enough people will be persuaded to continue the farce.
Dog help my grandkids.

Current news is that SBS reports this evening that Gillard has lost a leadership spill to Kevin Rudd, although the pack waiting outside parliament has yet to confirm the rumor.
I haven't read Greg Jericho's piece, although I understand him to be both a reputable individual and commentator.
As for Gary's post, I believe that it has become untenable that globalism in the current bastard form can by reconciled to even the mild centrism of the ALP sort, let alone more emancipatory and progressive politics- it is a sham and a con, and the strictures imposed on Australian governments of any colour have rendered it impossible for them to govern both for the public and its enemies.
As for Gary's claim that Labor is responsible for the asylum-seeker issue, I emphatically and unconditionally disagree.
However, Gary himself reveals that in his opinion, whatever the flaws of Labor that,
" the biggest positive..is.. that it is not the COALition".
Like others I will vote strategically: maybe Sustainable Population Australia or the Greens who stress the overhaul of the economy, A PRIORI, to properly accomodate future population increase; not disruptive open slather as some call for.
Also Wikileaks, the Greens or even Labor itself, depending on the polls.

The results of the spill: Kevin Rudd has defeated Julia Gillard for the leadership of the Labor Party by 57-45 .

Swan has resigned as deputy prime minister and the government’s senate leader Stephen Conroy, who is Communications Minister, has also quit.

Does Rudd have the numbers with the cross benchers to defeat a vote of no confidence intiiated by the Liberals?

Tony Windsor has indicated Mr Rudd would not get his vote, while Rob Oakeshott and Peter Slipper have said they would decide if the situation arose. So far Bob Katter supports Rudd. So does Andrew Wilkie, Craig Thomson and Adam Bandt.

If Rudd loses a vote of no-confidence in the House of Representatives, then the Governor-General would almost certainly have to appoint Abbott as caretaker Prime Minister until an election can be held.

Labor turned to Rudd again because polls showed he could raise its primary vote from 29% to 40%, and take the two party preferred vote from 43% to something closer than 50:50.

In other words, instead of losing 35 seats and possibly also control of the Senate, Labor could lose narrowly, or even have an outside chance of winning.

The polls are fickle though.

The argument is that with Rudd there is a reasonable chance of keeping Libs from Senate control and so stopping the repeal of existing laws.

Maybe

And so ends the appallingly inept exercise that began with the panic-stricken challenge to Rudd 3 years ago - an event of such astonishing imbecility that it was incomprehensible then and remains so today. Sadly that is the thing that Gillard will be remembered for, and the most important single factor in the disarray in which the ALP finds itself tonight.

I sometimes hoped Rudd would lead a breakaway from Labor which might work with the Greens to form a new centre/left party free of the pernicious influence of the corrupt Labor mob that we saw on display in the recent inquiry in NSW. Well it might still happen I suppose but the institutional forces working against it seem too strong.

The depths of desperation.

The hope in caucus is that Rudd can simply avert a disaster.

"And so ends the appallingly inept exercise that began with the panic-stricken challenge to Rudd 3 years ago..... Sadly that is the thing that Gillard will be remembered for"

Gillard will be remembered for her reforms as well. It was a reforming government.

'Gillard will be remembered for her reforms as well.'

Perhaps Paul but I doubt it. Whitlam is mainly remembered by most people as the PM who brought on a constitutional crisis and got sacked, not as the great reformer he actually was. Partly of course because Labor spent a good part of the last 20 years winding back his reforms.