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War crowd not looking good « Previous | |Next »
April 1, 2003

Well. What can we say to the PM"s current view that the war with Iraq is going to a longer war than anticipated he'd anticipated. He cannot say that its going to plan.

The PM could of course say that his Govt. got it badly wrong. That it had no policy. That it just trusted the Americans about the dash for Baghdad based on airpower winning the war in a week or so. That shock and awe strategy of the neo-cons failed to clobber Iraq into surrendering.

Its close on two weeks now and the Anglo-Americans still have not been able to secure Basra in the Shi'ite south. That was supposed to be easy because they would welcome you with open arms. And there are not enough troops, the supply lines are vulnerable to the hit and run tactics of the Iraqi's, and the army is involved in a war of attrition. And it appears that Arab Muslim volunteers start streaming into the country to take up the fight. Basically, instead of just being angry and marching in their own countries because they decide that Saddam's actually making a fight of it and go to get in on the action.

It was a deeply flawed strategy. Admit that it was in public. Concede that you made a mistake.

And why is the war going to be longer and tougher than originally expected?

Well that centre of gravity that the ex-military types on ABC's 7.30 Report go about is Baghdad. The military have to be able to enter and secure Baghdad. Its a much tougher nut to crack than Basra: its larger, populated, more Sunni, angrier at the US for the days and nights of shock and awe bombing), defended by the Republican Guard, and is much more critical to the Iraqi regime's survival.

And how is the centre of gravity going to be taken? Well the high-tech scenario to bomb the the place back to the stone age and the people who live there. And if that doesn't work then the only option left is to drawn into urban warfare amidst the rubble -- a mega-Mogadishu.

And how is the Coalition of the Willing and Eager going to look when it gets bloodied in both a military and political sense? Are we really prepared to be seen as the invaders and occupiers? As the barbarians who were willing and eager to destroy an Arab civilization.

Its not looking good PM. The war is not going to end the way you said it would. The narrow objective of regime change wil be achieved but it wilk take some time and and trigger so many consequences that it's not a political victory victory at all.

Admit it PM. Your Govt. did not understand what you were getting Australia into when you signed up.

Why not cover your flank and arrange for the ABC's Kerry O'Brien to interview Donald Rumsfeld, the US Secretary of Defense, on his blunders, failures and mistakes as a part of a show and tell honesty interview. I"m sure the ABC would oblige.

| Posted by Gary Sauer-Thompson at 2:46 PM | | Comments (2)


He won't admit it. Not his style. Gen Cosgrove's performance was also a tour de force today - I think he really believes what he is saying about being "on target", but no one else does. Very disappointing.

Assuming that the war is currently going worse than planned, what purpose would "admitting" it serve apart from giving more ammunition to opponents such as yourself?

How would it help either the Iraqis or the Coalition for the government to admit what you suggest?