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September 19, 2003
Abu Ardvaark has linked to an interesting paper by Brendan O'Leary on democratic governance in Iraq. It is interesting in the light of an occupation that is not going well, makes a welcome change from the military side of things and offers an alternative to the growing possibilities of an American-imposed "soft" dictatorship in Iraq. Sooner or latter the US has to leave Iraq.
O'Leary argues for a position that has been advocated by public opinion mark 1: a multi-national federation because the regional reality of Iraq's multinational composition makes a monocultural federation unworkable.
The Ardvaark is not persuaded by what by what he says is O'Leary's enthusiasm for a multi-national federalism. He leans towards, but does not endorse, non-federal options. That nonfederal pathway is towards a centralized liberal democracy with a monocultural nation. The danger on this pathway is the exclusion or repression of different ethnicities that constitute the Iraqi nation (eg., Kurds and Sunnis). That is a recipe for disaster.
Juan Cole has drawn attention to the drawbacks of multinational federalism. He says (in email) that a:
"Multinational loose federation is a recipe for the future break-up of Iraq. ...The alternative is to put in strong safeguards against a tyranny of the majority for the Kurds. Devolve education policy to the local governments, along with local commerce and agriculture. Have provincial legislatures and elected governors. Have a strong bill of rights. Have a bicameral legislature with an upper house that over-represents the Kurds and Sunni Arabs. i.e., use the 1789 US constitution as something of a model; it faced similar dilemmas. That is, I think the Kurds can get a lot of what they want under a fairly strong Federalism, as long as the right safeguards are built into it. And this would be preferable to encouraging sub-nationalisms that provoke civil wars in the future."
Abu concurs. The danger of O'Leary's loose multinational federalism is the Lebanonizing Iraq and so would encourage Iraq's eventual breakup.
Juan on my reading is advocating federalism with his mention of provincial legislatures and elected governors. Presumably these regionally based legislatures would be a political expression of the different regional ethnicities. So we have a federal political structure with a de-facto multicultural nation. Presumably we have one state and a common citizenship.
Hence the debate is about the degree of "looseness" versus centralization.
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I would refer your readers to comments I made earlier - & welcome constructive,informed suggestionse as a corrective to my half-thought out ideas
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