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June 11, 2004
I just couldn't pass by this Leak cartoon about the Coalition banging away at Peter Garrett from Midnight Oil, after he accepted a safe seat in the ALP and a fast track to a possible ministry. (Indigenous Affairs?).The cartoon is too good:
Bill Leak
The Coalition needs to defuse Garrett, since Garrett gave the ALP good press all last week. It was a very good media campaign and the press liked the food being feed to them by the ALP spinners. If
Garrett was the story of the week, then the other story was a big "ALP is anti-American" media campaign based on more attacks on Latham from the Bush administration. Armitage made implied threats about the US hurting Australia economically and withholding intelligence from a Latham government. He also suggested that Australians might wish to reflect on what life would be like without the US alliance. The Bush administration counterattack on the ALP is being done for John Howard as part of an effort to counter the big shadow cast by Iraq.
These stories are froth and bubble. As Laura Tingle in the Australian Financial Review (subscription required, 11, 06 04, p. 75) pointed out, we are inside the false election period, where a feverish political atmosphere is building. It will be stoked by Parliament returning to pass around 66 pieces of legislation in 7 days before the winter break ends. The legislation will take a backstage to the polemics.
I presume the ALP is taking Garrett on board to try to stop the drift to the Greens in the inner-city seats of Melbourne and Sydney. Let us be realistic about all of this. When the crunch comes Labor and Liberal will join forces to prevent the Greens from gaining seats. It has happened before. It will happen again.
However, a lot is riding on Garrett for the ALP. Judging from the comments I've read, the ALP is trying to save seats from the surging Greens, shore up the Senate vote against the Greens, revitalize the party, and appeal to younger voters along the coast. It's a big ask.
The Garrett story keeps growing. We have personal advice from a rock star concerned about Garrett's welfare. Others see celebrities as a response by the political elite to a decline in political parties---"a crisis of faith demonstrated by failing membership and a decline in old-fashioned dedication."
My judgement is that after Garrett became the star ALP recruit, the Coalition looked decidely less green than they did before Garrett signed on. Their energy statement, which is a pitch for the green vote based on energy efficiency, is to be announced early next week. The Coalition is now seen to be placing obstacles in the way of the renewable energy industry, and being too beholden to the coal and aluminium industry. The Industry Minister, Ian McFarlane, has more or less become the spokesperson for the protection of the energy intensive industries. The energy future is locking the greenhouse gases produced by coal-fired powerstations deep underground so as to make coal more viable for power generation.
Howard's big energy statement next week is an attempt to capture the political agenda. It will offer the renewable industry some cash handouts, some funding for commercialisation and for getting access to the grid, but reject increasing the MRET target to 5% or beyond. This MRET scheme would create a market by bringing new renewable projects into play, as it requires energy users to use renewable energy sources for their share of power.
Maybe the Coalition needs to have some substantive green policies? They are still riding on the Natural Heritage Trust of the distant past. So how green does the Coalition need to become to be re-elected? They reckon not very, since Garrett will play badly in the regional marginal seats.
On the other hand, the ALP continues to ease into safe mode. It is waiting for the government to fall over and it is avoiding making any mistakes. It's public environment policy was limited to plastic bags.
The two stories--Garrett joining the ALP and the attack on the ALP for being anrti-American---became one story for the Coalition. Garrett is a symbol of anti-Americanism for the conservatives.
June 12
Michelle Grattan in The Age is also saying that the Howard Government has launched a media campaign based around the ALP policy having "increasing overtones of anti-Americanism".
June 13
As expected, Colin Powell, the United States Secretary of State, has his two bobs worth on Australian television. He plays nice guy. He says that the withdrawal of Australian forces from Iraq under a future Labor government would be a political disaster. Sensibly, Powell stopped well short of suggesting such a move would have consequences for the Australia-US alliance.
What next in the anti-ALP campaign? Senior figures in the Bush Administration quoting midnight oil lyrics?
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Love your comment re Labor's environmental policy being plastic bags - shame it's not true. Wot about Kyoto, Tasmania, biodiversity, etc
Howard has introduced updated 2004 model of the Tampa - the US alliance and Garrett is already helping Labor by stealing the focus from Howards little ploy.