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"...public opinion deserves to be respected as well as despised" G.W.F. Hegel, 'Philosophy of Right'

an apocalyptic vision « Previous | |Next »
June 12, 2006

This is indeed strange.The Australian reports that Rear Admiral Chris Parry, head of the development, concepts and doctrine centre at Britain's Ministry of Defence, informed a conference that future migrations would be comparable to the Goths and Vandals, that North African pirates could be attacking yachts and beaches in the Mediterranean within 10 years whilst Europe could be undermined by growing immigrant communities with little allegiance to host countries -- a "reverse colonisation" .

Perry says:

Globalisation makes assimilation seem redundant and old-fashioned ... (the process) acts as a sort of reverse colonisation, where groups of people are self-contained, going back and forth between their countries, exploiting sophisticated networks and using instant communication on phones and the internet."

Perry pinpointed 2012 to 2018 as the time when the power structure of the world, much of which dates from World War II, was likely to crumble. Rising nations such as China, India, Brazil and Iran would start to challenge the US as the only superpower. This would come as "irregular activity" such as terrorism, organised crime and "white companies" of mercenaries burgeons in lawless areas at the expense of conventional forces. The effects would be magnified as borders become more porous and some of the most vulnerable areas sink beyond effective government control. Criminals and guerillas may then spread the danger beyond these areas.

| Posted by Gary Sauer-Thompson at 5:41 PM | | Comments (9)
Comments

Comments

Wouldn't you know it, on the very day I cancelled my weekday Oz subscription. I'll track the article down, sound interesting. In a sense the sorts of trends he forecasts are a neat bookend to what globalisation has brought about at the other end of the scale, ie tax-shifting, highly mobile global executives moving about both within and outside their companies, transfer of data to support design, manufacturing, medicine etc.

Phil,
The link is here

I find Perry Invoking the western Roman empire's collapse in the 4th and 5th centuries from repeated blows from groups such as Ostrogoths, Visigoths, Suevi, Huns and Vandals surging over its borders rather wild. Perry invokes the process culminating in the sacking of Rome in 455 by Genseric the Lame, king of the Alans and Vandals, in an invasion from north Africa, because he reckons there is up to 80,000 West Africans are poised to migrate illegally to Europe.

Illegal migration in search of work and a better life is coded as a barbarian military invasion that wil lsack the cities of civilization. That is playing the fear card. So speakth the national security state.

The paranoid imperialist: Always fearing those his masters have oppressed for centuries are secretly plotting the invasion of his own lands. His own belief in the actual truth of this is a form of doublespeak which he employs to co-opt the support of the people and distract them from his own undermining of their rights and the oppression of those of whom he makes these unsupportable and racist claims.

Interesting extension of this at Global Guerrillas.

Second, the competitive advantage is rapidly conferring to the revisionist group, no matter how small. These groups can, and will, continually gain strength (economic, technological, and influential) through interaction with an increasingly open global platform. The acceleration of technological progress will only make this process faster. As these groups move to challenge the state for control over identity, they will in many cases opt to fight. To fight, they will increasingly use a new method of war -- the systems disruption and open source warfare that I detail here on this site....

Phil, John Robb sees it as destructive though, whereas I, as an Australian Diasporan, sees it as constructive. John Robb also doesnt differentiate between national identity and political identity. As an example, I identify myself politically with Australia rather than the US, despite living in the US. This is purely a choice of representation. The US wont let me participate politically.

My national identity has become amorphous. I am not alone in that. I was at a party with German diasporans on saturday night, and a German mate of mine I was talking with was saying the same. He was saying he is like a cultural and national orderve. His home and culture is where he works, but his identity is supra-national and supra-cultural.

If violence does come from small ethnic groups against nation-states, it has more roots in a crisis of representation IMNSHO, than it does in fundamentalism. The nutcases will always exists, but the nation-state, and its tribal/assimilative structure, is alienating politically. It doesnt let people join in immediately.

Basically, the uncosmopolitan nation-state it is making globalisation more dangerous.

Thanks for the link Gary. The extract is indeed very apocalyptic and, given his employment, is probably a plea for funding. Cameron, you appear to be part of the other group I referred to, ie the highly mobile globalists whose skills can and do take them anywhere. My extremely rough analysis was that for your group it's all good, for the others it's all bad and hence these forecasts.

Phil
The reason for global migation flows is obvious, economically speaking. The gap in global living standards is expanding, with per-capita income in the developed world having increased since 1975 from forty-one times that in the poorest quarters to sixty-six times. Migrants, in pursuit of wages that are twenty-to-thirty times what they could earn at home, are finding it ever easier to flow across borders.

The US and Europe are the places to go. The diaspora networks expedite journeys and help immigrants settle in the west, are part of an increasingly sophisticated human smuggling and trafficking industry. Jobs are also more plentiful, as the pressure of globalisation compels companies to reduce costs with cheap, flexible labour.

It's going to happen to Australia in the future.

The politics of immigration – one that could lead to greater public acceptance of immigration---is on the skids due to the security and cultural fears that have been amplified since 9/11.

Cameron,
In the 1990s, nativist critics in Australia, the US and the UK wielded the disarming argument that immigrants stole jobs and depressed wages – a hard case for a politician to rebut.

Isn't this protectionist position against immigration losing some of its potency in recent years. Americans and Australians have spent the past decade seeing their jobs offshored to India and now China. Now the jobs and the wages migrate abroad, and it is no longer possible to blame immigration for those losses.

Simon,
The current practice of the US and Europe of barring most legal migrants while letting millions of others slip illegally through the back door is not very successful.

It means that smugglers are enriched, immigrants work in oppressive conditions, xenophobia runs rampant, and the lack of integration programmes leads to marginalised and angry communities within the US and Europe.