|
August 22, 2006
At a distance the Beattie Government looks to be returned with a reduced majority in Queensland, despite a falling popularity and the crisis in water, energy and health. The ALP's primary vote is up despite the forementioned crises coming from both a failure to invest in infrastructure as well as the continuing economic and population growth of the state.
Leahy
There is little genuine voter choice in Queensland given the coalition sideshow in the form of the accident prone Queensland Liberal Party. The Coalition has become an issue, and there is only a few weeks for the Springborg-Flegg team to improve their performance and offer a convincing alternative.
It's an uphill battle for the conservatives as Queensland has billion dollar surpluses, fully funded public superannuation and no net debt. Cheerleader Beattie has ensured the diversification of the Queensland economy from its natural resources and tourism base by fostering smart state industries, such as biotechnology, aviation and export education.
Though Queensland is marked by a city/country divide the shift in popuation--those migrating from the south eastern capital cities to the southeast corner of Queensland in search of a better lifestyle are “tree changers” or “sea changers”. They more likely to vote for the ALP and Greens, rather than the Joh-era hardline conservatism of the Queensland Nationals with their development at all costs. The Nationals credibility in the metropolitan southeast corner would be on a downward slide, given their opposition to water recycling and their 'lets build more dams' ethos.
With no upper house there is even less accountablity in Queensland than in the other states. Though we are seeing a group of independents forming in the lower house, these are not enough to gain a balance of power and so put pressure on the Beattie Government. This pressure is sorely needed after Toowoomba's residents said no to their Lord Mayor's Water Futures proposal to return treated recycled wastewater to the city's drinking water. Beattie is now saying that southeast Queenslanders should pray that rain will fall to fill existing and proposed dams. So much for a long-term, cost-effective solutions to a water crisis caused by a lack of rain.
|
On the accountability point, Beattie's best government was arguably his first term minority government when two independents held the balance of power initially, though the Parliamentary dynamic changed after Labor won a couple of by-elections (from memory, it might have just been one).
The huge majorities have not been good for anyone, even Labor.
But if the current dynamics hold, and on my seat by seat analysis, I don't see Beattie being returned with anywhere near the slim majority that others are predicting. It wouldn't surprise me if Labor end up in the low 50s out of 89 seats. (Labor won 63 seats in 2004, but lost 3 by-elections and the dissident member for Noosa has just resigned from the ALP, so they hold 59 actual as opposed to notional seats going to the election).