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August 5, 2006
The conflict in the Middle East is supposed to be about the benefits of democracy, free markets and the rule of law-- a sort of secular holy war. That is what being modern means, according to Tony Blair. It's all about values. Presumably bombing Lebanon to rubble will strengthen Lebanese democracy by uniting the country's various ethnic groups and political factions and then turning them against Hizbullah. What we are witnessing is the birth pangs of a new Middle East.
A more skeptical view of what Israel is up to this----a de facto annexation of southern Lebanon. It does help to explain the overreaction of Israel to a border incident with Hezbollah. Is that what the Bush administration is providing diplomatic cover for?
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Due to its circumstances, Israel is a militant nation-state. It really has no other choice in a hostile region. I think it spends approximately 8% GDP on defence (Australia spends 2% in comparison).
It appears once a nation develops a highly potent military, which Israel has, there becomes an inertia to maintain and use it.
Hezbollah requires a political solution. While their militant arm is politically strong/relevant, there will be constant incursions and conflict on Israel's northern border.
The problem is a military response only increases the political power of militant Hezbollah (as opposed to the democratic Hezbollah who had to get elected in the Lebanese parliament).
Israel has defeated itself in this instance by seeking a military solution.