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November 27, 2006
I'm continually suprised by The Greens. They talk up their prospects prior to the election, do less well than they expected in the election, and so they are seen as not doing well post election. What is the purpose of this boosting strategy? Showbiz? Naivety?
As in Tasmania, the Greens in Victoria said they were going to hold the balance of power in the Legislative Council as well as obtain some inner city House of Representative seats (eg. Melbourne). They even started talking about what they would do with the balance of power, as they did in Tasmania.
Well it hasn't happened. Sure the Liberals were devastated, are in disarray and remain a factionally divided state opposition until 2010 if not 2014. The geographically based National Party has surged, Family First keeps on making ground, the Greens won two seats in the Legislative Council, but Labor, unexpectedly according to the Greens, looks like keeping its majority in the Legislative Council. Brack's Labor rules supreme, even though it hasn't done all that much in government. That success was expected.
So it is more of the same kind of governance. Hopefully, the rejuvenated Bracks Government will continue to lead the national reform agenda on human capital reform, health and infrastructure. Bracks Labor, with its corrupt party machine will, in all probability, only be thrown out when it is on the nose from some sort of economic crisis.
And the Liberals? They have now lost 20 state elections in a row. That should be a cause of deep concern to them. The Liberal primary vote in Victoria had failed to improve, and that this is a serious problem for them. However, the embittered Victorian factions (the Kroger and Costello forces versus the Kennett forces) continue to tear themselves to pieces. Charles Richardson, writing in The Australian, says that there is something distinctively wrong with the Liberal Party, a failure to adapt to modern conditions that is partially masked by its federal success. It's a good judgement.
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It was interesting that the swing away from the ALP was all to Family First - which most probably means a splitting of the Liberal vote.
Family First could well become the conservative equivalent of the Greens - a parking space for the votes of those who don't think the majors are pushing their personal agenda hard enough.