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Baghdad revisited « Previous | |Next »
January 18, 2007

Tony Karon over at Rootless Cosmopolitan has a good post the plan of the severely weakened US administration of President Bush to stablize Baghdad plan. He says:

So, essentially we’re now being asked to believe that the Iraqi government, dominated by Iran-friendly Shiite religious parties, is going to act in concert with Bush’s plan — and even Bush admitted that their support is the critical factor — giving U.S. forces the green light to take control of Sadr City from the Sadrists and so on, even as Washington moves its assets into position for a military strike on Iran....Even within the narrow Iraqi context, no matter what Maliki has told Bush, I wouldn’t bet on him coming through for the U.S. when the battle for Sadr City starts in earnest, and Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, appalled by the violence, begins demanding that the U.S. go home.

The signals from Washington are increasingly about the need to curb Iranian influence in Iraq and the wider region and the object of Bush's latest escalation is Iran. The interests and objectives of Iran's strategic rivals the United States and Israel threeaten to bring closer the prospect of pre-emptive assaults on Iran's nuclear installations.

Iran is seen by Israel as a potentially powerful regional player who could become a threat. And according to Israel’s military doctrine, potential threats are to be treated as existing threats. The US-Israeli strategy iis one of building a new middle east order based on Iran’s exclusion and isolation. Karon adds that:

Equally important, though, the new Bush moves give Iran no incentive to cooperate, and plenty of incentive to tie the US up in an increasingly messy situation in Iraq. And my suspicion is that Tehran has hardly begun to exercise its ability to cause chaos in Iraq.

The US aims to justify its aggressive rhetoric against Tehran and it is suggesting that Iran bears much of the blame for sectarian violence in Baghdad. Iran has Iraq, Afghanistan, and the oil card to counter its exclusion and isolation. Iran wants to be the "indispensable regional power" – in Iraq, and in Afghanistan, the Persian Gulf, the Caucasus and much of central Asia.

| Posted by Gary Sauer-Thompson at 1:36 AM |