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July 13, 2007
It is beginning to look as if the Coalition is in trouble, doesn't it? Deep trouble. The atmosphere is changing. Small mistakes that mean nothing in themselves (forgetting names, smug lines on housing affordability and food prices delivered with a sneer) become symbolic, and an indication of the formation a new more critical way of judging. The Liberal talking points no longer resonate:
Clement
A political shift is beginning to take place--the anti-Keating political constellation or political bloc that was put in place in 1996 is now unravelling. The ALP is now setting the agenda and the Liberals are responding, whilst the Liberal attacks on Rudd are water off a ducks back.
Laura Tingle in the Australian Financial Review says:
There has inevitably been a lot of discussion in Canberra about the government seems to be making so many unenforced errors of late, from last weeks' oil debacle, to whether a travel warning to Indonesia was upgraded or reissued to forgetting the name of the candidate for Franklin. Many believe it is just a reflection of how rattled the government is: that ministers just never believed that Rudd would be able to get and maintain the traction he has, and that they had got out of the habit of anticipating an effective opposition.
Maybe. Tingle also canvasses the effects of staff changes in the Prime Ministers' office. Maybe again. She mentions the attack on the Labor state's economic credibility has been ineffective in attacking federal Labor's economic credibility.
But it is not just a question of political tactics and strategy is it? These are not biting in the electorate like they used to because of the melting of the 1996 political alignment or bloc. The fault lines are shifting, as can be seen from the graphs interpreting Newspoll at Possum's Pollytics. There are large movements in the primary vote toward the ALP with women deserting the Coalition.
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Gary,
The quarterly Newspoll, (ie., one in which a meaningful sample can be gathered for each state from the normal fortnightly samplings) is not good for Government MP's.
It shows a two party preferred swing against the Coalition of 12.2 percentage points in NSW, 11.1 points in Queensland, nine points in Victoria and 10.4 points in South Australia. In the economically booming Western Australia the swing is put at “only” 5.5 points. Nationally the swing as measured from April to July is 9.8 points – 9.5 in the five capitals cities and 12.2 outside of them.
An actual result in these state along the lines of this Newspoll would be absolutely disastrous for the Coalition.