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November 17, 2007
It's going to go down to the wire in the local campaigns in the marginal seats and be determined by the swinging voter. It's old news, I know. But it does look as if there is a chance that Labor may get over the line, as the Liberals are not getting traction.
I do not think that Labor is going to romp home, as the polls imply, since about 25 per cent of people make up their minds in the last week and 10 per cent on the day as they go into the polling booth. I know, that too is old news.
Geoff Pryor
I've switched off listening to Labor. As John Hewson pointed out on Lateline:
Rudd is really from central casting. They've done all the focus group research, got the lines right and been very disciplined - I agree - in delivering the lines. They've got five dot points and it doesn't matter what you ask, you get the five dot points. And they keep doing it and they've been very disciplined.
What they have achieved is that Labor will get a dozen of the 16 seats it needs. It's the last 4 that will be difficult.
As Rod Cameron pointed out on Lateline:
Labor has to get a record preferred vote and has to get swings of 6, 7 or 8 per cent in either Queensland or Victoria or NSW to win this election and it's only just sitting there at the moment at that level....The polls are showing that Labor is sitting on the swing that it needs to win election, a bit above it. Labor's going to need 52 per cent of the preferred vote to win. It's a smidgin above that at the moment and, you know, one week can knock a per cent off easily.And there's a certain gravitational settling here. I mean, Labor to be polling at such stratospheric levels is just not going to happen. There will be just normal settling, even if Labor has a good week. There will be just people who will come back to the fold.
The numbers are very hard, particularly if Labor doesn't win the bottom 16 seats and has to go to higher margins to get them, or loses a seat or two as seems likely in WA. So how much is the drift back to the Liberals in the key margginal seats in percentage terms?
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Gary
The editorial in the Weekend Australian says:
They say that the prospect of defeat allows us to reflect on Howard's more strategic mistakes and after naming them add that during periods of economic bounty such as these, elections are for governments to lose rather than for Oppositions to win and Howard's strategic failings are clearly coming home to roost.
Sounds like The Australian has been mugged by reality.