I would think that a challenge from Turnbull is about 100 percent likely at some stage. Abbott is never likely to have the numbers to try. He was most popular with the electorate when he went through that baby saga and his popularity then was based on people feeling sorry for him when the kid was declared not his. Since then he has looked altogether a rude, hard and perhaps uncaring person. Certainly doesn't endear Australians to him. The Slavic countries like that sort of leader. Not here.

Nelson is hardly a newbie and he has the numbers. He has obviously been using the hemorrhoid cream under the eyes to get rid of those black bags that he is prone to so he even looks a bit friendlier lately.
I am sure the cartoonists are happy. Its not often a leader comes along with a name like nelson. But hey wasn't I dream of Jeannie's bloke a nelson. Yes I can see that! Him in a uniform bumbling around and bishop in the Jeannie suit blinking her eyes to make things happen. LOL

Here's hoping. There are good signs there for the time being at least. I think Turnbull would have been a better option for the Liberals.

I'm game for a couple of predictions.

It will be at least the better part of a decade for Rudd, but not necessarily because he'll be a fantastic prime minister. The Liberal party is a mess and will need someone a lot better than Nelson and probably better than Turnbull to be a credible alternative. Turnbull has the public appeal but not much else.

If your conversations about the world economy have taught me anything (and there's no guarantee of that because I'm rather thick when it comes to such things) I'm inclined to think Rudd, with the best of intentions, won't be able to do everything he wants partly for economic reasons.

The other part of the partly is that much of what he wants to do involves fixing too much in the way of institutionalised stagnance.

It will be a decade of reform, but not as much reform as we're hoping for. Julia Gillard's progress will be more interesting than Rudd's. She'll never be leader, but much of what success Rudd enjoys will be due to her.

Gary
The chief economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has given a warning that the world economy could be facing what he calls a "perfect storm".

Simon Johnson says the combination of the global credit crunch and high oil prices could bring a big reduction in international trade from which no one would be immune.

As lyn is making predictions so will I.

I predict that when things start going bad and Rudd falls out of favor he will get sick and resign.

Okay,
mine is that the traditional power balance of Sydney-Canberra-Melbourne will be modified. Brisbane is part of the power balance now and a lot of attention will be given to Queensland. After all, it was Queensland that gave Rudd Labor their victory.

Lyn,
in the short term Rudd is going to have to worry about inflationary pressures that are building up, coupled with high household debt, that comes from the China linkage.

Will our ties to the regional economic powerhouse be enough to insulate Australia from the increasing downturn/recession in the US economy, due to the meltdown in the subprrime mortage market and the evaporation of liquidity in the credit markets? Will the US drag down the world economy?

It all depends on the American shopper. Will they continue to buy cheap Chinese goods and so cause a decline in Chinese exports and reduced demand for Australian raw materials?

Well, the Chinese are certainly worried. Demand in the US is dropping and the rate of increase in Chinese experts to the US is slowing.

Gary,

Your prediction re distributions of power is interesting. Anna Bligh said the same thing. Do you think this will come with a weakening of power in either Sydney or Melbourne?

when you say "in the short term Rudd is going to have to worry about inflationary pressures" how short term are you talking here? The US seems to be postponing the inevitable. How long can they convincingly keep that up?