November 10, 2007
Apparently one in four voters no longer aligns with the major parties and they represent the fastest growing category of voters. So you can see why the politicians focus on the apolitical swinging voter. They have to.
Who are the swinging voters? Andrew Clark in the AFR (subscription only) helps us out by turning to the work Rod Cameron, the former ALP pollster, which profiled the swinging voter around 1980. This profile makes interesting reading in the light of policy convergence addressed by Mark Latham in the AFR. Cameron says that for the swinging voter:
politics is dull, boring, and largely irrelevant to their lifestyle. Politicians are held in low esteem. Politics is 'out of touch' with their interests and lifestyles. Interest in political philosophy, ideology, is very low. There is far greater involvement and interest in matters concerning their personal and family's financial wellbeing, and their day-today interests (sport, family leisure) than in simple questions of ideology and government Their catchcry is non-involvement. They abhor political aggression, political rallies and anything which implies (irrelevant ) political involvement .
It is the swinging voter that is shaping the style and content of the political campaigns.
Cameron goes on to develop his profile of the swinging voter:
They are essentially the products and (supporters) of mass market commercialism, gaining their political information from Mike Willesee (who?) or his equivalent, the tabloid newspapers and occasional commercial news bulletin. They want political stability, predictability, moderation....They are searching for a middle-ground party, a moderate leader who is strong...but can understand and represent their value system...the value ideology of the swinging voter is self-interest: interest in the maintenance of personal wellbeing.
Cameron then links this profile to the political campaign:
the party must concede that rhetoric is more important to the swinging voter than the details contained in policy outlooks. Sloganised epithets ---which reduce complex issues to oversimplified , often distorted, catchcry positions --represent eventually the real reasons why uncommitted, often apolitical swinging voters cast voted for a political party.
It's a paradox isn't it: the people with the least interest in politics generally are reputed to have the most significant impact on the result of a tightly fought election.
This profile ties in with one of Mark Latham's arguments. His central thesis is that middle-class greed has become so all-consuming that both major parties must design their policies to appeal to avarice at the expense of “social justice or redistributive strategies”. There is consequently, he says, no real choice. Latham is talking about the swinging voter.
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Gary,
I'd add that they also don't know which candidate leads which party, which is why the absence of John Howard's head on local campaign material is a double edged sword. They could very well want to vote Liberal but end up voting for the Scottish Ballet Party or something.
At least they like civility. The ALP should have recruited June Dally-Watkins.