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January 4, 2008
The Democrat white folks of Iowa have voted for a black man (Barack Obama) over a white women (Hillary Clinton) to be their presidential candidate. They say they voted for change. Edwards looks doomed now, since he just doesn't have the money to overcome this loss in New Hampshire.
Clinton, the favourite, looks damaged --despite all that money, expertise, support and skill she came in third. Moreover, she stands for experience not change.Even though it's not all that clear what sort of needed change Obama is advocating---beyond legislative "gridlock" and "the status quo"--- he does have the Big Mo (political momentum). The young (men and women) voted for him in a big way. If Obama beats Clinton in New Hampshire, he will almost certainly win South Carolina. Do the Democrats need Hillary Clinton? The Clintons stand for the past.
The Republican folks in Iowa, in voting for a Evangelical Christian (Mike Huckabee)---a Baptist minister who dismisses Darwin and makes dubious comments about AIDS --- have signaled the fracturing of the Reagan conservative coalition.
The Club for Growth (neo-liberal) faction of the Republican party have explicitly rejected Mike Huckabee and his big-government and populist policies, dubbing him to be the John Edwards of the Republican Party. As Robert G. Kaiser observes in his live analysis:
Reagan brought together evangelicals, old-fashioned country-club Republicans, southern middle-class voters and the group that became known as "Reagan Democrats." Huckabee wins Iowa without bringing together any broad coalition at all; he got evangelicals and a few others, it looks like. Other Republicans fractured in many directions.I agree with the now-common commentary that there is no heir to Reagan now, or even to President Bush.
Huckabee is opposed by almost the entire establishment of his own party. That means the GOP "party elders" have to figure out a way to stop Huckabee, and they can no longer plan to run against Clinton. Who do they have left? Romney? Cain?
Is the United States entering an era of change? The 24/7 news culture had a Clinton and Romney scenario locked in place as definite.
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Gary,
the possibility of a young, charismatic, black guy as the next US president has to be pretty damn inspiring.