Philosophical Conversations Public Opinion Junk for code
parliament house.gif
Think Tanks
Oz Blogs
Economic Blogs
Foreign Policy Blogs
International Blogs
Media Blogs
South Australian Weblogs
Economic Resources
Environment Links
Political Resources
South Australian Links
"...public opinion deserves to be respected as well as despised" G.W.F. Hegel, 'Philosophy of Right'

US Presidential Campaign: Florida « Previous | |Next »
January 30, 2008

The general consensus based on the polls is that Florida (the Sunshine State) will deliver for Clinton on the Democrat side and for McCain on the Republican. The demographics in Florida are skewed heavily to the elderly and so favour Clinton. As there are no delegates at stake for the Democrats the interest lies in the demographics. As one pundit put it:

If Obama wins his ethnic vote but cannot compete well with whites, Latinos and other minorities then he has clearly got some serious weaknesses to deal with, especially for Super Tuesday. If Clinton cannot hold together her coalition between Latinos, white women and lower economic class/educated Dems then she has shown some real weaknesses going forward and that the Obama camp has done her more damage than her camp believes to be the case.

The interest on the Republican side is, firstly, what happens to former New York mayor Rudolph W.Giuliani? His campaign is built around terrorism – even though terrorism is not high on the voters’ priorities in Florida, yet almost half of the voters in Florida’s Republican primary consider the economy the most important issue and almost two-thirds describe the nation’s economy in negative terms. Is Guiliani toast? Secondly, what happens to former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who has not been travelling well since he failed to take South Carolina.

| Posted by Gary Sauer-Thompson at 8:25 AM | | Comments (4)


15% counted in Republican primary: McCain 34% Romney 30%
Guiliani 17% Huckabee 13%

15% counted in Democrat primary: Clinton 52% Obama 29% Edwards 15% Edwards has failed to catch a wave with his campaign to return the Democratic Party to its blue-collar roots and making the eradication of poverty and furthering social justice a central theme. He was constantly shoved out of the limelight by Obama.

The interest in the Florida primary lies in the McCain Romney contest. There are no independents allowed--they've carried McCain in earlier primaries, many Republicans do not like McCain and Romney has spent up big.

The Democratic National Committee stripped Florida of its delegates. Hence it loses its significance for the Clinton Obama contest.

With 62% of votes counted McCain wins in Florida as does Clinton. Giuliani, who had staked his entire campaign on a strong showing in Florida, trailed with 15 percent whilst Huckabee ran fourth with 13 percent.

Giuliani is in trouble. His brilliant election strategy failed. No doubt there will be a soon-to-come departure of Rudy from the race.

The most conservative Republicans were siding more often with Romney, while those who said they were more moderate were leaning toward McCain. Josh Marshall says that where:

McCain is extremely unpopular is among what you'd probably call professional conservatives -- talk radio hounds, full-time activists, heads of the major organizations, conservative opinion journalists,

Still, McCain is the official GOP frontrunner.

I see that John Edwards has pulled out of the Democrat presidential primaries. Giuliani, who would nuke anyone who challenged US hegemony in the Middle East also falls by the wayside and endorses John McCain? And then there is Huckabee who is ignorant and proud of it.

I see that McCain, who likes like gaining the Republican nomination despite the hostility of the hardline Republicans is weaving together four Reaganesque themes:

- National security and the determination to defeat terrorism in Iraq and the region.

- Conservative social values.

- Smaller government that is accountable to the people.

- Optimism about America's future and greatness.

But he is no Reagan. McCain is still viewed as suspect on hot-button Republican social issues such as immigration and taxes.

John Edwards stood in opposition to the bipartisanship that is currrently practised in Washington. This means that enough Democrats join with all of the Republicans to endorse and enact into law Republican policies, with which most Democratic voters disagree. This is the norm for the legislation involving national security and terrorism.His message of populism and fighting for 'we the people' was directed at the world of big corporations.