January 30, 2008
The general consensus based on the polls is that Florida (the Sunshine State) will deliver for Clinton on the Democrat side and for McCain on the Republican. The demographics in Florida are skewed heavily to the elderly and so favour Clinton. As there are no delegates at stake for the Democrats the interest lies in the demographics. As one pundit put it:
If Obama wins his ethnic vote but cannot compete well with whites, Latinos and other minorities then he has clearly got some serious weaknesses to deal with, especially for Super Tuesday. If Clinton cannot hold together her coalition between Latinos, white women and lower economic class/educated Dems then she has shown some real weaknesses going forward and that the Obama camp has done her more damage than her camp believes to be the case.
The interest on the Republican side is, firstly, what happens to former New York mayor Rudolph W.Giuliani? His campaign is built around terrorism – even though terrorism is not high on the voters’ priorities in Florida, yet almost half of the voters in Florida’s Republican primary consider the economy the most important issue and almost two-thirds describe the nation’s economy in negative terms. Is Guiliani toast? Secondly, what happens to former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who has not been travelling well since he failed to take South Carolina.
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Gary,
15% counted in Republican primary: McCain 34% Romney 30%
Guiliani 17% Huckabee 13%
15% counted in Democrat primary: Clinton 52% Obama 29% Edwards 15% Edwards has failed to catch a wave with his campaign to return the Democratic Party to its blue-collar roots and making the eradication of poverty and furthering social justice a central theme. He was constantly shoved out of the limelight by Obama.
The interest in the Florida primary lies in the McCain Romney contest. There are no independents allowed--they've carried McCain in earlier primaries, many Republicans do not like McCain and Romney has spent up big.
The Democratic National Committee stripped Florida of its delegates. Hence it loses its significance for the Clinton Obama contest.