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March 14, 2008
Will the estimated $400bn of mortgage-related losses in the US cause a credit contraction resulting in a $1 trillion fallout for the real economy? Would this translate into a 1.3% reduction in GDP growth? Is this a worst case scenario?
Certainly the connection between the bursting of the housing bubble in the US and the fragility of the global financial system has created huge dangers and risks for financial markets and the US economy.
Leunig
The situation is one of a vicious interaction between falling asset prices, financial stress and spending.Nouriel Roubini of New York University’s Stern School of Business, argues that there is a rising probability of a ‘catastrophic’ financial and economic outcome. The characteristics of this scenario are a vicious circle where a deep recession makes the financial losses more severe and where, in turn, large and growing financial losses and a financial meltdown make the recession even more severe.”
His scenario is given in 12 steps and points to the need to consider the fiscal costs of a bailout of the financial system in what some call a “worst case scenario”.
The government would have to mount a rescue. Up to now the Federal Reserve has been rushing money to the banks, who were having trouble attracting funds. But that hasn't stopped the financial panics. The black hole is that the whole financial system is facing demands to come up with cash it doesn’t have.
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C'mon Gary, run The Age story about the depraved life facing young aborigines up in FNQ.