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September 6, 2008
I expect that the Liberals will get a bit of a shock in the Mayo by election as both The Greens and Di Bell, an independent supported by Nick Xenophon, will poll more strongly than expected by either major party. Though the Liberals --Jamie Biggs, an ex-Howard staffer----- will hold onto the seat with preferences and postals, water (the state of the River Murray) will play an influential role in this by election. it will reduce their traditional margin.
My judgement is that the Greens, on preferences from the independent candidate Di Bell will push the Liberals to a very close contest, with the Liberals dropping their primary vote significantly. Di Bell is attracting around 17 per cent of the primary vote after campaigning almost exclusively on the issue of the plight of the river Murray and the lower lakes.
And Western Australia? Labor could well face defeat there. If so, that would send shock waves through to Canberra. At best the Carpenter Government is fighting for its survival. The ALP has a buffer of nine seats whilst a uniform swing of 3.6% would put the Liberals in power. By all accounts it may not be enough. Green preferences in the key marginal seats could determine the outcome. How could the ALP lose so many votes during an historic minerals boom against an opposition that was until recently dysfunctional?
Update
It doesn't look good for Labor. There's been a big swing against them--- more than 6% in some seats, whilst statewide, the swing was 5.5%. Labor look to have lost 9-10 seats and its fate may be decided by a handful of independents and Nationals.he best scenario for the ALP is a hung Parliament.Labor appeared unlikely to be able to gain more than 27 seats in the 59-seat parliament, while the Liberals were likely to take 25 and the Nationals four, with two independents and another seat to be decided.
Update:7 September
The Liberals suffered a near 11 per cent swing on the primary vote in the Mayo by-election. On the two candidate preferred tally, Briggs (LIberal) led with 51.7 per cent of the vote to Vonow's (Green) 48.3 per cent. The preferences from Family First flowed back in sufficient numbers to ensure a victory for the Liberal Party. The Liberals are confident that margin would be enough for victory with 10,000 pre-poll votes to be counted this week. The real story is that a historically deep blue Liberal seat has now become pale blue. One that The Advertiser will ignore in favour of celebrating a Liberal victory.
In WA it looks as if the Labor government could only stay in power with the support of two independents or if they can get to 29 seats, if they win 2 of the doubtfuls. Another (more realistic) possibility is that West Australian Liberals can form government after some tough negotiations with the Nationals, that would to enable them to form a Liberal-National Coalition. This may look this: 24 Liberal +2 Liberal (Ind) Sue Walker and Liz Constable + 4 National
The significance of the WA election is that state Labor cannot blame the Liberals for their failure to govern competently since Labor is now in power in Canberra. We have wall-to-wall Labor. So state Labor will be seen for what it is ---bad government. A corrupt NSW Labor is the next linchpin to fall.
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The Nationals are history in Mark Vaile's old seat of Lyne. Robert Oakeshott wins comfortably. The decline of the Nationals continues.