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September 29, 2008
Leaders in the United States Congress last night approved an unprecedented $US700 billion ($840 billion) plan to revive credit markets. In the UK Bradford and Bingley is the latest high street bank to fall victim to the financial contagion as unemployment is rising and consumers are tightening their belts. On Friday the Rudd Government made $4biilion available ( a support package) for no- bank financial institutions providing household mortgages.
So things aren't alright in Australia. The bank mortgage lenders are unable to get funds to provide new mortgages, and of those that can have to charge much higher interest rates. As mortgage rates rose ihousands of homeowners now struggle to find affordable finance.
The US plan does not reduce across the board the debt burden of the distressed household sector. Does that mean that without such a component the debt overhang of the household sector will continue to depress consumption spending and will exacerbate the current economic recession?
Will purchasing toxic/illiquid assets of the financial system be an effective and efficient way to recapitalize the banking system? It would appear that the plan does not address the need to recapitalize those financial institutions that are badly undercapitalized. It looks to be a bailout of reckless bankers, lenders and investors. Bailing out wealthy bankers when the millions of families losing their homes get little direct help is not going to play well in Main Street America, which has seen factory after factory close and jobs move overseas. What has happened to fairness in the US?
John Gray says that the era of American global leadership, reaching back to the Second World War, is over in The Guardian. His argument is that America will be even more starkly dependent on the world's new rising powers. and it is unclear that the governments of countries that buy large quantities of American bonds---China, the Gulf States and Russia---will be ready to continue supporting the dollar's role as the world's reserve currency? Gray says:
The fate of empires is very often sealed by the interaction of war and debt. That was true of the British Empire, whose finances deteriorated from the First World War onwards, and of the Soviet Union. Defeat in Afghanistan and the economic burden of trying to respond to Reagan's technically flawed but politically extremely effective Star Wars programme were vital factors in triggering the Soviet collapse. Despite its insistent exceptionalism, America is no different. The Iraq War and the credit bubble have fatally undermined America's economic primacy. The US will continue to be the world's largest economy for a while longer, but it will be the new rising powers that, once the crisis is over, buy up what remains intact in the wreckage of America's financial system.
He says that America's political leaders appear unable to grasp the fact that American global leadership is fast ebbing away.
Update: 30 September
The House of Representatives voted to reject a $700 billion rescue of the financial industry in defiance of President Bush and Congressional leaders of both parties who had said the bailout was needed to prevent a widespread financial collapse.The vote against the measure was 228 to 205, with 133 Republicans turning against President Bush to join 95 Democrats in opposition. The bill was backed by 140 Democrats and 65 Republicans.
So House Republicans voted roughly two-to-one against the bail-out, while the Democrats split three-to-two in favour. This was a Republican bill and 2/3rds of the Democrats voted for the bill.
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So trust matter for capitalism. London's money markets froze because of a trust collapse; banks simply don't believe each other when they say their businesses are sound and will not default on their obligations.