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"...public opinion deserves to be respected as well as despised" G.W.F. Hegel, 'Philosophy of Right'

the more things change « Previous | |Next »
September 17, 2008

And so the dogs bark and the caravan moves on. The political climate changes yet again--away from the cultural traditionalism and social conservatism of the Howard era.

costellobook.jpg Bill Leak

The cyclical dynamics of being in opposition faced by a popular first term government will continue to grind mercilessly. The position of the leader of the opposition is known as the poisoned chalice and it more often than not it destroys the people who take on the role. In the leadership is a bruiser with ego, presence and a will to power who will take it up the Rudd Government. It is "game on" as the Canberra Press hacks and talking heads say.

| Posted by Gary Sauer-Thompson at 3:03 AM | | Comments (15)


Turnbull has a history of being in the right place at the right time and making the best of an opportunity. His timing here is perfect. Nelson is only really ever going to be a great Assistant Manager and that is based mostly on the way he looks and comes across.
In Malcom's favor are the two issues Water/Environment and the downward turn in the economy. Both of which will get much worse before they get better. Combine this with the upward trend of voter backlash against Labor in the states. Every stuff up by the Labor run states lifts a nail out of the Federal Coalitions coffin and nails it into Rudd's.
We live in a fast digital world now that even after his short term in office Rudd can begin to look the old government and Turnbull the new broom.
Time to back Labor to lose the next Federal election.

I'm not so sure. Turnbull offers more energy, better communicating skills and more appealing style -- in selling the coalition's message--but so far the content of the message is pretty poor. Just opportunistic ad hoc policies that add up to very little. Turnbull, as shadow Treasurer, had not made much dent on the Rudd Government's economic credibility.

I am not a Turnbull supporter yet. He has to prove himself to me in this new role.
Labor has 2 years to show us there economic credibility then the voters will decide. If things aren't looking good or looking like getting better in 18 months time they are gone. I am punting that they wont be re-elected at this point.

"We live in a fast digital world now that even after his short term in office Rudd can begin to look the old government and Turnbull the new broom."

Interesting point. Especially considering electoral politics is getting more like Australian Idol.

On the other hand, in many respects we do not live in a fast digital world. There's nothing fast or digital about paying off a mortgage, getting kids educated or dealing with climate change.

Yes the core basic desires of life are still there and one can still choose to live by the old ways. Some have it chosen for them. If you wish to go to work in gum boots thats fine with me.

Yes Electoral Idol is a good analogy.

according to Miranda Devine in the SMH the "three or four votes" from the NSW right --including Senator Concetta Fierravanti-Wells and the north-west Sydney MP Alex Hawke--were crucial to Turnbull's 45-41 victory. She adds:

Turnbull's first two days have been as sure-footed as you would expect. But there are still those in his party who don't trust him, finding solace in one ALP description, recounted by Laurie Oakes last week, that Turnbull is what you get if you put John Hewson and Mark Latham in a blender and turn it up high..... Better to let the party have its Turnbull "experiment", and get it out of the way, like a kidney stone that needs to be passed

Then, when Turnbull implodes, as his critics claim he will, sooner or later, under the pressure of unmoving polls and people who disappoint him, the party will turn to Mr Reliable on the back bench, the former treasurer who can promise a return to golden economic times.

Yes wouldn't newspapers be boring if they were full of just correct facts. Its the speculation in them that makes them intriguing and worthy of purchase. Good newspapers get the right mix. Bad ones don't. Blogs tend to follow this too but the speculation content is usually higher.
Miranda Devine is a good writer.

have you noticed how Costello no longer talks about a career in the private sector --but is working diligently for the voters of his electorate in Higgins?

Turnbull will take the Liberals to the 2010 election. Working in his favour is his leadership performance style and the crisis in the financial system. This is no sure bet that Turnbull will win that election.

There has been much speculation that Costello has had no real job offers in his price range. I don't believe it.

Nan, it's interesting that Turnbull's support came from NSW. Does that mean that Julie Bishop didn't rustle up the WA crew in his favour?

Turnbull is now engaging Labor on the economic debate in a way that Nelson never did. Fear and loathing in financial markets, the slowing economy, with rising unemployment ahead, is what he can use to make a case to regain economic credibility for the Liberals

However, Labor has tried to head this attack off--- Turnbull, they say, is talking things down for his own political ends and so increasing heightening Australia's vulnerability.

As yesterday showed-- re Turnbull's questioning of Glenn Steven's use of "lightyears" to describe the difference between US and Australian financial institutions--- Labor will use anything to make some mud stick. Rudd attacked Turnbull for politicising the financial crisis. Yet it was Rudd, by attacking Turnbull over nothing, who was politicising the crisis. Not a good look. Labor looked vulnerable behind the facade.

On the other side, some Liberals reckon that the Rudd Government lacks cohesion and forward thrust, and that under the weight of economic difficulties and an emissions trading scheme it could be the first oncer government in more than 80 years. That's their hope. So the key to cutting back Labor's lead is having a credible Opposition. Turnbull gives them that.

no idea. Presumably not. Though Bishop herself did apparently. It is still a deeply divided party. Only success will unite them.

The problem the Liberals have is that there is no credible way of blaming the Rudd Government for the global credit crisis. So they have very little to show to back their claim that the Rudd Government is accountable for its mismanagement of the economy. All Turnbull has so far---- from his time as shadow Treasurer--- is Wayne Swan hyping the inflation card for political ends. It's not much.

Today Turnbull has offered to quite political games over the economic crisis and work cooperatively with the Rudd Government.

Rudd, check. Knock back the offer and you look childish, accept it and you've lost the edge on the economy you gained because of Nelson.

The media was granted their wish and now has new news.
On the visual side Labor has come out strong against Turnbull accusing him of being a toff. This is because he has much more Aussiness about him than Rudd. That is what Rudd fears the most. The aussies turning on him. Rudd made us watch him play cricket. It was a bit sad.
Perhaps next he will be standing next to Bindi saying CRIKEY!!