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December 15, 2008
The Rudd Government's white paper on an emissions tradings scheme (ETS) will be made public today. It is pretty clear that it will politically be situated in the middle ground between what Rudd is calling deep cuts advocated by environmentalists and The Greens and the doing nothing position of the miners, heavy energy users, big emitters and the sceptical Right whose rhetoric is about short term economic survival, job losses and businesses being driven offshore.
Rudd + Co want to be criticised by both sides of politics to show that their government is doing something sensible and rational. So we can expect a low starting point to reform. The ground has been well prepared with all the talk about the cap target to reduce Australia's greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 being between 5 and 15 per cent below 2000 levels. The Opposition has focused on the timing of the proposed ETS, dodging the issue of appropriate targets or caps on emissions.
The middle ground----striking the right balance says Rudd + Co--- will provide lots of free permits for the energy intensive industries, lots of talk about dire economic conditions and the need to protect jobs, compensation for households and business, little in the way of incentives for innovative investment in renewable energy and not that much to drive energy efficiency in households and business.
This--a shift to a low carbon economy--- is going to be a major structural economic reform, and it will help define the politics of the Rudd Government and the possibility of its re-election in 2010. There has been no "solar revolution" rhetoric from the Rudd Government; very little from them about new green jobs or renewable manufacturing industry; and little about any assistance to heavy polluters being conditional on investment in low emission technology deployment industries to ensure investment in world’s best practice low emission technology and energy efficiency.
Wong's standard message has been to attack the Coalition for being opposed to an emissions trading scheme and the scepticism within its ranks,. She has been concerned to paint the Coalition as climate change sceptics. She has said very little about industry rent seeking, industry's need to invest in clean technology research, and/or integrating the cost of carbon into long-term planning, decision making and investments; or industry's failure to be clear about safe, long term global greenhouse gas levels.
Update
What a damp squid! 5% unilateral reduction in 1990 levels of greenhouse emissions. An absolute maximum cut to emissions of 15% by 2020 - if the world signs an effective climate pact -The emissions scheme is expected to earn about $12 billion a year. Of the $12 billion, about $10 billion will go for compensation and free permits. Only $700 million goes for energy efficiency measures. It's out and out protectionism disguised as an example of the "reforming centre" that locks Australia into a hot and rather bleak future.
Rudd and Co have simply crumbled under pressure from the big polluters. They've only had enough political courage to stand firm on their commitment to begin the emissions trading system in 2010.They have shielded from change everything emissions trading is designed to change. So how are Rudd and Co going to drive the change to a lower carbon economy? Where are the reform drivers?
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The reality is that the emission trading scheme has been crippled by polluter interests. The major polluters, some business leaders and their representatives.They have lobbied for “soft starts” and/or delayed action. They continue to shirk their responsibility to reduce emissions by demanding free permits to pollute, large handouts of public funds and corporate welfare without the ‘mutual obligation’ that would require them to invest in clean technologies.
The Australian newspaper has been their media voice.