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Anna « Previous | |Next »
March 22, 2009

Queensland, swinging one day, not really swinging all that much the next.

Wiser folk than I will no doubt explain the election result in way more complex terms than this, but it looks to me as though Anna won and Lawrence lost.

A couple of weeks ago Graham Young questioned the wisdom of an ALP campaign photo which portrayed Bligh as a dominatrix. My voting age daughter said the same thing yesterday. The severe figure in the photo was not responsible for Anna's high personal rating, which ended up reflecting the election outcome more closely than the polls.

It appears that large numbers of the large number of polled undecideds decided in Anna's favour at the last minute, and some of the previously decideds eventually decided the other way. What caused them to decide the way they did is anyone's guess, but I'm putting it down to Anna vs The Borg.

Had Lawrence comported himself through the campaign the same way he did during his concession speech, it might have been a closer thing. After weeks of braying and thumping and making up words Barnaby Joyce-style, he came across as someone you wouldn't mind representing you at an important function when it was all too late. He'd campaigned as the angriest person in the state, and while the state might have been a bit cross about some things, it wasn't beside itself with fury. And certainly not at a smallish woman whose smile could light up an AFL stadium. She has that in common with Beattie.

We'd settled in for a long, nail-biting night in front of the telly, but Possum called it at about 5.05pm when the exit polls came out. ABC coverage of the count started at 6.30 and while Antony Green tried to do the traditional suspense thing, it was all over before 7. After that it was the pure guest-politicians-in-the-studio theatre and the novelty of Pauline Hanson's result. She came in just over 21%.

Lawrence will stand aside and let someone else have a go at leading the LNP, which should be interesting. The conservative side of politics Australia-wide will go on wondering what's gone wrong. Barnaby will continue to be a one man, two parties kind of guy. Queensland will now be the first state to elect a female premier but will probably manage to maintain its parochial image. The Qld ALP will go on excorcising the ghost of Joh.

So you people in NSW, Victoria and SA might just get some water out of us yet, but don't go getting too excited. The Gold Coast will get its AFL stadium, which will make Clive Palmer cross. Anna will pick her own team, which has to be better than the one the factions chose for her. Brisbane will have one children's hospital and the public service can relax about their jobs. We can also stay friends with the big fellas in Canberra, which could come in handy in a recession.

| Posted by Lyn at 11:00 AM | | Comments (28)
Comments

Comments

The size of the swing was however extraordinarily bad news for Kevin Rudd/Malcolm Turnbull/the Greens/Peter Costello, depending which school of spin you belong to.

For the rest of us, life seems not to have changed too much at all.

It's entirely possible that people are simply happy enough with things the way they are, but that would be not sensational, and we can't have that.

Really, and my bias is showing here obviously, for most people, well at least in the vicinity of 50%, there is just NO alternative to the ALP. The Greens have no financial clout, the Democrats are gone and you just cannot vote for the COALition no matter what name they go by.
Its the same dilemma we face in SA, and I am led to understand even more so in NSW, namely no matter how unhappy we are with the government the other mob are clearly worse.

The people of NT and WA would probably beg to differ Fred, but otherwise yes, the coalition don't appear to know where to put themselves. They haven't been very good at producing either viable policies or viable leaders.

Lyn,
At the end of the day the people chose the devil you know.
My local Labor bloke got in so I am happy.
I would comment though that this election seemed to have the most Graffitied election signs I had ever seen. I see porky pig didn't win in Burleigh.
Apart from this all I can say about the whole thing is;
ommmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm!

Thanks for the mention Lyn. Noted your comment on the new team, but it sounds from this morning's news as though it is not going to be particularly new at all. Back to business as usual. Depressing that there is so little new talent on both sides.

Les,
Yes, I'm pleased we hung on to Peta-Kaye in my neck of the woods. The bits of Gold Coast the LNP gained were to be expected.

I gather you had a good weekend omming then.

Graham,
The first thing girl child said when we arrived to vote was something like 'Those posters make her look like a bully'. The clothes and her expression. You were spot on. But so was I. They were striking because they weren't anything like Anna.

New talent - maybe our easy times and stability means fewer people are motivated to enter politics.

Lyn,
I will miss Springborg a bit. I have grown accustomed to drawing a H on his forehead whenever I see his picture in the paper. Never mind,out with the old.
Langbrook would grow on people over the next couple of years I think and it would be a step forward rather than back perhaps. So he is my pick for leader. It is my information that he was raised a Jehovah's Witness but is no longer involved with them.

Is that H a Red Dwarf reference Les?

Maybe bits of Springborg will live on, like denecessary and oblivity.

A Gold Coast person would be a logical choice for them if they're wanting local seats.

Raised a Jehovah's Witness? You mean he was one of those poor kids who get dragged around to make their creepy parents seem harmless? I often wondered what happens to the poor little bastards when they get older; thanks for clearing up the mystery. They join the Liberal Party.

The calls to bring in Captain Brough to lead the conservatives out of the wilderness will rise to a howl. Brough and Noel Pearson - now there's a conservative dream ticket if ever I heard one.

Brough could do a Costello and lurk in the shadows until every last one of them apologises for letting Springborg keep the gig.

Gee
And I missed all the fun and excitement Queensland way. Could only catch a snippet on Channel Nine news. It was a tired and tattered government with a poor record on infrastructure. Nothing has really changed in Queensland I take it? Has Labor been too long in office to regenerate?

Yes he reminds me of Rimmer

No Gary. Business as usual.

Rimmer? He does too. The LNP offered us a smeghead.

So the LNP couldn't take Brisbane or the Gold Coast. Springborg was--and sounded like--- a National's leader whilst the party machine was dominated by Nationals coming across as the boys from the bush. Little has changed there.

How can the LNP expect to take Brisbane looking and speaking like the Nationals, when this alienates the Liberals and blocks the rebuilding of their urban base? The Nationals (and their Santoro Liberal allies ) come across as wanting to eliminate the moderate liberals.

The Nationals stand for the Right's assault on liberal values, and so they don't appeal to metropolitan voters, moderate liberals and transplanted southerners. The Bjelke Peterson heritage is a political burden the Nationals cannot thrown off. That is what they are, and it doesn't play well in cosmopolitan Brisbane that has embraced the Smart State rhetoric.

Gary,
I read the political landscape has changed in Oz.
The punters now it seems are much less likely to believe the slim,fresh guy/gal that seems to represent change. The punters will want evidence that it will be better for them with change.
The punters up here feel they were sucked in a bit by the Rudd 07 campaign and chose not to get sucked in again by Springborg who ran basically the same type of campaign.

But the LNP picked up enough seats to win next time if they get the visuals right.

Les,
what about policy as well as visuals? The LNP ran a 1980s campaign about big debt and slashing public service, rather than addressing the global economic crisis that is savaging Queensland's coal exports to Asia.

There is going to be bloodletting in the LNP after the loss. Will the federal Nationals and Liberals campaign as separate political parties or as the LNP? Or will the LNP be seen as the Queensland division of the Liberal Party of Australia?

My guess is that the LNP will slowly become a part of the Liberal Party over time. The old Bjelke Peterson days are long gone.

Les, Nan,
Springborg was a person/policy package of the Nationals type. You didn't have to know the detail of his policy to have a fair idea of what he was about.

The divisions in this state run along rural/urban lines, so the ideal LNP candidate will be very difficult to find. A well educated, urbane farmer or an agriculturally inclined city slicker.

Gary,
Policy appeals to perhaps 25% of the voters and 90% of them vote along party lines.
Visuals are much more important.

Lyn,
The divisions in the LNP are no greater than the divisions in the ALP.

Les,
does that mean that building an AFL stadium in the Gold Coast appeals to 25% of the Gold Coast electorate? Nay.

"The divisions in the LNP are no greater than the divisions in the ALP"

That may be true Les, but the divisions in the ALP don't reflect the geographically distributed divisions in the population. The Libs/Nats divisions do.

Gary,
People were concerned about much smaller and more local issues. It's hard to describe, but the Gold Coast of tourism and development (and the stadium) is not the Gold Coast of the people who live, work and vote here. Nothing in the image or politics of the Gold Coast reflects the resident population.

I think the stadium was aimed at business and Clive Palmer, who wants a soccer stadium instead. The residents would probably have been more interested in the public transport announcements, but the stadium got all the coverage. Clever campaigning all round, but it had little to do with Gold Coast residents.

Lyn,
doesn't the image of development of the Gold Coast (tourism?) impact on the resident population in terms of jobs?

Not as much as it used to Nan. This place is changing, though there's some uncertainty about what it's changing into. And it's doing it very, very slowly.

Gary,
The Carrara stadium where the Afl is played holds about 16,000. It is easy to get tickets to the games. I often decide on the night whether to go and can always get tickets at the gate. One game last year had a crowd of 7000.
The best guide as to the stadiums popularity/issue would be to divide the bums on seats by the population of the Gold Coast.
True we are to have a team in the competition next year but we had one based here for many years and failed to draw huge crowds.
As for the Clive Palmer wants a soccer stadium. Well he can pay for it if he wants and watch the games with maybe 1000 spectators at best.

Lyn,
is a process of diversifying the local economy from tourism happening?

Les,
There are three sets of wisdom on that - one says the Gold Coast population isn't big enough to support too many codes, which is what you're saying. The other one is that there's growing support for any code because of southerners moving here. The other one says we need a team of some kind to give us a sense of identity and the Titans should be enough.

Then there's the one that argues we need stadiums to attract tourists, which is popular with the tourism industry but not so much the population.

Soccer has been the game most played here at a local level until last year, which makes you wonder whether having the Titans is some kind of inspiration for locals.

I'd rather support a local ballet company myself, but it's interesting to see how things change.

Gary,
Slowly slowly. Not so much that it would make a blip on the bottom line, but enough to make you think maybe the smart state idea is taking hold outside of urban Brisbane. The GFC is bad for business everywhere, but it hits tourism and building hard, which could be a boost for other things trying to develop through the noise. Or not. We'll have to wait and see.

Well Lyn if we are to dress in ballet tights I will be bringing my footy socks for sure.