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March 1, 2009
So the global economic crisis has finally hit Australia. All the rhetoric about Australia being an exception --uncoupled from the world!--could not hold the negative economic flows from the collapse in Asian exports over the fourth quarter 2008 at bay. Of course, they--the King Canutes--- are still around saying the good times are just around the corner as Australia is just experiencing a hiccup (or adjustment) in the smooth functioning of the market.
Matt Golding
Beware the greenies say the free market shrills, for they are holding the economy to ransom to save the planet from global warming. Meanwhile in the real world there isn’t much evidence that Asia is going to help pull the rest of the world out of its slump. Asia’s sharp deceleration implies it is adding to the forces that are pulling the global economy into recession, not propping it up.
According to Brad Sester China’s low-tech exports — shoes, textiles, toys, furniture — have held up and are doing and are doing (relatively) well
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The capacity of intelligent people to believe that booms can continue unchecked indefinitely amazes me. I remember back in the 1980s my boss - an otherwise sober sensible bloke despite being an economist - assuring all who cared to listen that there would be no more recessions. Macro-economists had mastered the business cycle, he preached to governments and the media.
He was laid off in the 1990s recession :).
The last boom was probably the biggest in history and consequently we're looking at the biggest bust in history. The idea that China or any other country could continue to grow at 15% or more forever and drag Australia along for the ride was always pure fantasy, right up there with government by the people and the Laffer Curve. That won't stop people believing next time round that the boom is REALLY DIFFERENT this time.