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April 20, 2009
Before the global financial crisis and its economic fallout happened new office buildings and apartments were going up all over the Adelaide CBD at a furious pace. For the last couple of months or so the construction in the city has become rather quiet. Eerily so. The holes in the ground remain fenced whilst the building sites that are still active have skeleton crews working ever so slowly. Me? I'm waiting for the boarded-up shopfronts to appear so I can take a photo of the history we are living.
Meanwhile finance has boomed, becoming ever more powerful. The banks have enormous political weight and the executives of the world of high finance believe that they control the levers that make the world go round. For them it was axiomatic that the interests of the financial sector are the same as the interests of the country. The economy was always fundamentally sound.
The words "expanding" , "affluent" , "prosperous" and "efficiency" appear empty, now that the city is no longer trying to cannibalize itself and the dead commercial spaces start appearing. Things are getting worse is how it appears.
Life is being quietly snuffed out from the shock waves of a dirty economic bomb set off by the bankers who continue to make their millions whilst on the living off public subsidies. As the wreckage they have caused continues to mount we suspect that the finance industry has effectively captured our government and they are pushing onto the government the substantial problems (toxic debt) that have arisen. Corruption? Nay. The financiers are God's favoured children.
The shock waves continue to roll across the landscape causing destruction in their wake. More unemployment. Longer bread queues. Another firm collapses. The economic commentators talk in terms of "green shoot"s, “V-shaped” recoveries and “glimmers of hope”, whilst the Commonwealth Government subsides the old industries who promise "clean coal", and it turns its back on renewable energy. Corruption? Nay.
The economic commentators are still in the grip of the market mystique. They still believe in the magic of the financial marketplace and in the prowess of the wizards who perform that magic in the name of rational expectations and efficient markets. This belief system is the finance industry's cultural capital. Yesterday’s “public-private partnerships” have yet to be relabeled “crony capitalism.
As Paul Krugman observes:
But the wizards were frauds, whether they knew it or not, and their magic turned out to be no more than a collection of cheap stage tricks. Above all, the key promise of securitization — that it would make the financial system more robust by spreading risk more widely — turned out to be a lie. Banks used securitization to increase their risk, not reduce it, and in the process they made the economy more, not less, vulnerable to financial disruption.
Banks “do not want to recognise the full extent of their losses, because that would likely expose them as insolvent ... This behaviour is corrosive: unhealthy banks either do not lend (hoarding money to shore up reserves) or they make desperate gambles on high-risk loans and investments that could pay off big, but probably won’t pay off at all. In either case, the economy suffers further, and, as it does, bank assets themselves continue to deteriorate – creating a highly destructive cycle.”
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As Johnson points out there is a paradox here ---the banks aren't going to lend a dollarl until the economy turns.” But the economy can’t recover until the banks are healthy and willing to lend. Moreover the current political balance of power gives the financial sector a veto over public policy, even as that sector continues to lose popular support.