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May 20, 2009
I notice that the bring it on pose of the Coalition---"we will block everything so bring it on"--- has shifted to a more realistic stance of passing legislation such as the alcopops tax. Why the change of tactics? They are in a weak position: they need time to build up their debt/deficit message on the economy and they would do badly in a double dissolution election.
Moir overdoes it but you get the general idea:
So what will happen with the emissions trading scheme? Will the Coalition fight to the last man in the trenches or back off. Back off with lots of smoke and spin from the conservative noise machine is my guess.They have to fight on their own terrain and that is the economy and economic management. The conservative base may be onside re the irresponsible government message--judging from reading the comments in the Australian---but not the middle section of the electorate.
As Paul Kelly notes the Liberal Party has got its election issue, which is pinning
the brand of "higher debt, higher unemployment and higher deficits" on Labor, and [asking]: "How many years, how many decades will it take us to pay off hundreds of billions of dollars of Rudd Labor debt?"....This budget draws the battle lines for the next election with the economy as the dominant issue. Rudd will campaign as the leader whose decisive actions saved Australia from the worst brutality of the global recession and Turnbull will campaign to liberate Australia from another long night of Labor deficits.
The Coalition will not deny Rudd's carbon emission scheme and create the basis for a double-dissolution election.Their hardline stand against emissions trading will melt over time in the face of political reality.
By pricing carbon, a cap-and-trade programme would have a tremendous number of beneficial spinoffs from providing incentives to make the shift to clean energy at the provider level and to making individuals more efficiency minded and on and on down the line. But it is not the end of the story, as it will do little to change peoples' driving habits, or to reduce the price of renewable forms of energy.
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the politics on the cap and trade legislation is simple. The dirty energy producers and soi disant centrists in both parties, will work to either weaken it further or kill it off entirely.