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May 25, 2009
Jack Waterford has an op ed in The Canberra Times that gives a good account of "Old Labor"--- or Right wing Labor---- vis-a-vis The Greens on issues around the environment, feminism, multiculturalism, the rights of refugees and Aborigines people. He says:
A good many old Labor stalwarts, including machine people, completely despise and dismiss the Greens and their constituencies. There's the use of phrases such as ''inner city elites'', and the continual charge that some of the social focuses of Green voters are based in living in some sort of la la land where people do not have to encounter ''real'' issues or the ''real'' problems of the economy.....'Old Labor'' claims to respect the drift of such impulses, but to regard them as secondary to bread and butter economic and industrial issues. It thinks that giving them too much attention can symbolise losing touch with the ''real'' voters. Some of them think that Paul Keating's late-premiership attention to such issues sealed his defeat. They view the interests of such constituencies at heart as middle-class issues and self-indulgences, compared with the hard realities of winning and sustaining power from the electorate. And, anyway, they think, those so motivated really have nowhere to go other than to supporting Labor, even on such issues, ahead of the Coalition.
Waterford's argument is that the young, activists, people who want to be involved, and idealists are turning away from "Labor'', which is increasingly a brand name like soap constructed by advertising agents, public relations men and psychologists. They are making the turn to The Greens who they see as willing to address the gut issues. This is a long term trend that works against a morally conservative Labor Party in the inner city seats of the capital cities.
My judgement is that Waterford's account is pretty right and that the inner city seats, particularly in Melbourne and Sydney will be captured by The Greens, who have laid claim to the Labor's ---historic concern with the light on the hill. The Greens will also increase their seats in the Senate at the expense of the Coalition, that is shifting further to the right. Labor will increasing look what it actually is---a middle of the road party bounded by political parties on the right and the left, which it decries as extremist and irresponsible.
The conflict over emissions trading and global warming will intensify this long term shift
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Labor's decision in Victoria to direct preferences to Family First instead of the Greens resulted in Stephen Fielding being elected to the Senate. This should have been a sobering lesson - but apparently not.
The NSW Labor government is definitely still "old Labor" and would be absolutely decimated at the next state election if the Liberals could stop fighting among themselves and present a shadow front bench line-up that is anywhere near halfway credible.
As it is, I'd expect a strong swing to the Greens that might even be enough to gain a lower house seat.