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June 18, 2009
In Iran the street protests over the disputed elections continue as does the repression of dissent on the street by the clerical regime and the crackdown to prevent the foreign media and internet providers from carrying further coverage of the demonstrations. The rift between factions of the Islamist ruling class have become more open as the street protests transform into a civil disobedience movement.
Moreland
Will this self-directed movement be satisfied with a limited recount of the election, given Hussein Mousavi's demand for a fresh election? Is the recount a delaying tactic by the authorities who are hoping things will calm down. Will the reform movement in Iran be subsequently thwarted and crushed? Will there be a savage, bloody crackdown by the Khomeinists?
There does appear to be a crisis of authority for the clerical regime as the theocratic state is metamorphosing into a military dictatorship. However, we have little idea how these protests are going to end or what they are will produce by way of reform.
What is unclear is the significance of the regime deep divisions in what is now a highly polarised society or what these divisions represent beyond being hardline (Ayatollah Ali Khamenei) and reform (Hashemi Rafsanjani and former president Khatami) has called for market reforms and privatisation, more personal freedom and better relations with the west). We know that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been caught up in the eight-year tug-of-war with the reformist movement, that he interprets the discontent on the streets as a potential threat to the very notion of an Islamic Republic, and the survival of the theocratic regime come first.
At the moment it looks as if the existing regime will survive the current turmoil and remains in power and that Ahmadinejad will wind up serving as president for another term. So an increasingly sclerotic clerical regime continues on for a while with ever more power given to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
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What is strange are those Western commentators in the US and in Israel who are happy to see Ahmadi-Nejad win, as this would keep the ‘narrative’ dumbed-down for facilitating the objectives of the ‘bomb Iran’ neo-con crowd. It is clear that they have little concern or sympathy for the Iranian people.