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November 29, 2009
Some in the Canberra Press Gallery say that Turnbull's woes and trouble have been mostly been his own doing. His leadership style is too imperious, his crash-through style is not consultative, he doesn't listen etc etc. Either the crash or crash through wrecks the party. So Turnbull has to go, if the disarray is to be overcome.
My judgement is that though Turnbull's crash-through style has contributed to his predicament, this predicament is caused by the irreconcilable divisions within the Liberal Party. So I am more sympathetic to Tony Wright's interpretation, as it is built around the split or schism within the Liberal Party.
He argues that Senator' Minchin's short term strategy is to ensure the Senate debate on the endless emissions trading scheme amendments — about 200 of them — is strung out in until he and his lieutenants had put in place the means to lever Malcolm Turnbull out of his job.
The mechanism was the conservatives mass resignation from the shadow cabinet and thenplacing pressure on Hockey to stand for leadership as a unity candidate against Turnbull and then to become the mouthpiece of Minchin's conservatives. That involves switching the party room’s support for the emissions deal and sending it to the freezer.
So Hockey, a climate change progressive, would owe his leadership, and be beholden, to Minchin's climate change sceptics and denialists. Hockey's moment as consensus builder has come: to unite the party and attempt to minimise a further loss of seats in the 2010 election.
What "consensus builder" covers up is that the the party of Menzies has turned destructively on itself in an implosion of rage and resentment on the issue of climate change. Behind using Hockey to lightly paper over the cracks (the "cuddly face" of the Liberal Party spouting Minchin's hardline views on climate change) lies the strategy of the Minchin conservatives (the religious right, the climate sceptics, the big-C social conservatives).
This strategy is about policy differentiation with the Rudd Government, standing on their core principles and staying true to their base. Come 2010 and we will have a pared-down Liberal Party that will emerge from the ashes that Turnbull leaves behind.
Update
The consensus commentary of the Canberra Press Gallery says that the ground has shifted in the Liberal Party against Turnbull and an ETS. Surprisingly, the Nielsen Poll indicates that Turnbull is getting increasing approval from the people the Liberal Party needs to win the votes of in order to perform well at an election (ALP voters), yet he is bleeding approval from the Coalition base. Turnbull has become isolated from his own party.
The Hockey and Dutton team will replace Turnbull, the ETS will be sent off to a Senate committee, the Liberal Party has turned against climate change and becomes the party of climate change deniers and coal interests, and Hockey appears to dump his own beliefs on the emissions trading scheme. Hockey now becomes the cuddly mouthpiece for Minchin and Abbott's economic liberalism + social conservatism.
Since there will be no support for the emissions trading scheme from the Liberal Party Hockey's suffering has just begun. An election loss looms in 2010 for the Liberals, as they turn away from the middle ground and retreat to the safety and security of their base leaving the ALP standing firm in the middle ground.
Update
The Minchin strategy of Liberal senators stretching out debate on the emissions legislation in the Senate while they wait for a new leader to withdraw Turnbull's order to support the bills has come unstuck. Two Liberals (Humphries + Troeth) would not support it, nor would Fielding. Hockey, instead of opposing the legislation is in favour a free conscience vote in the Senate. There are enough Liberal Senate votes (10-12, including Gary Humphries, Marise Payne of NSW, Queenslanders Sue Boyce and George Brandis, South Australian Simon Birmingham and Victorians Michael Ronaldson and Judith Troeth ) to ensure the passage of the legislation.
Minchin's conservative refused to accept Hockey's position for deferral of a vote on the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme to February plus of a free conscience vote on the legislation. Abbott is standing for the denialists anti-ETS camp in a three way contest. The consensus is that Turnbull has lost majority support in the partyroom and will be removed if the leadership spill succeeds. His body language shows he knows this and he comes across as bravado without hope. Hockey is still expected to win.
What does Turnbull do?
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Peter van Onselen in Pros and cons of product differentiation in The Australian says:
Fair point. The ETS can be seen as a battle within the Liberal Party over the pros and cons of product/policy differentiation from the ALP