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April 16, 2010
We are now in election mode with both major parties busy clearing the underbush and the simmering fires to establish the ground they want to fight on. Rudd Labor wants this year’s election to be about health; Abbott's Coalition wants it to be about about boats. The election campaign is well and truly under way and the contest will be fought around marginal seats and the electoral middle.
In A vote-changer? at Inside Story Peter Brent from Mumble explores the concept of the electoral middle ground in the context of the current debate about asylum seekers. He says:
Australian electoral politics is dominated, to a greater extent than probably any other country, by the views and interests of the “middle.” Not the “middle ground,” but “middle Australia” or the “outer middle,” a group who tend not to identify strongly with either major party and whose votes are often up for grabs.Young couples with children are overrepresented among these voters,who the major parties see as unengaged, conservative, reasonably affluent, self-interested, materialistic and prone to see themselves as victims. They are also very white, wary of change and, when pushed, unenthusiastic about immigration.
He adds that they congregate in reasonably marginal electorates in Australia, mostly in the outer suburbs of Sydney and Melbourne and the further-out “regions,” our electoral geography gives them extra influence. And this being possibly the most suburbanised country in the world, there are lots of them.
Hence Labor's asylum freeze---a suspension of the processing of new asylum applications from Sri Lanka and Afghanistan in order to defuse an issue that has not, and is not, playing well for Labor.
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Well, let's start with the last sentence.
Why has it, or is it, "not playing well for Labor"?
Because of a butt apperture like Abbott and his tabloid friends trying to feed off the last dregs of Hansonism and fend off the likelihood of the old right heading for anihilation at the next election.
"Shorter", they are so sterile this is the best they can do as to issues and policy.
Abbott tried to have it both ways with this, but was undermined by the timing of the departure of the most recent and most significant rats yet deserting the sinking ship, Minchin and Turnbull.
Now, loss of momentum has him in the same situation he hoped to put Rudd and for Labor, revenge is best served cold.
Rudd sidestepped neatly the issue last weekend, because the subtext involving Abbott is so clear. This is brutal for both the Hansonists and people like those at Merak; Rudd is making sure others responsible are also identified.
Abbott now has to belatedly share the approbrium that he sort to direct at Labor, who have longed simmered over the equally unscrupulous Beazley Tampa squeeze.
Rudd has been able to sellthe message that it is abbotts politics rather thanhis harshness that is at rock bottom the cause for genuine refugees current plight. This is also amoral of course, but at least accountability is now shared about and Abott exposed.
I think Abbott will be routed for his brutality and ineptness shortly, particularly if they call a snap election.
The real question is, would a Rudd government free of the encumberance of the Right, finally do the right thing, or simply become lazy and corrupt like some of the state governments.