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April 1, 2010
So it is over ---and, as expected, the Hare-Clark system has produced 10 Labor, 10 Liberal and 5 Greens. Andrew Wilkie almost won in the 5-seat electorate of Dennison. What was unexpected was The Greens winning a seat in Braddon on the West Coast.
Where now for the Greens? Will Premier Bartlett reject negotiating a power-sharing deal with the Greens and advise Governor Underwood to hand the reins of Government to Will Hodgman's Liberals in line with his pre-election pledge to resign his commission if the Liberals won more seats or a higher proportion of the state-wide primary vote. Will this be endorsed by the Labor caucus? Labor's strategy appears to be that it is better to retreat to opposition to rebuild than further antagonise the electorate by clinging to a minority government likely to end in acrimony with the Greens.
The political reality is that both the Liberal and Labor parties are both pro-development/pro business and part of the corporate state. However, there will not be a LIB/LAB government. My judgement is that the Liberal Party will form minority government --but with whom? Labor or the Greens?
Update
Labor lets go of government. Liberals are to form a minority government. Or so it seems. However, both major parties continue to refuse to negotiate with the Greens. Does it make far more sense for the Liberals and Labor to negotiate, than for either to negotiate with the Greens?
Will Tasmania's Governor, Peter Underwood accept Bartlett's decision to give up power? Will the Governor alternatively commission a minority Hodgeman Liberal government? Or will the Governor commission the Labor Party and let Parliament decide the rest by forcing the issue to the floor of the parliament with a vote of confidence in Bartlett Labor? Will the Governor meet the Greens or only deal with Liberal or Labor? What kind of deal will the Liberals try to negotiate with the Greens to form a minority government?
One possibility being canvassed is for the Liberals to be forced to seize power from Labor on the floor of the parliament with support in some form from the Greens. Will the Greens go along with this to ensure stable government in Tasmania? Whatever the mechanism used by Governor Underwood to resolve the stalemate Bartlett or Hodgeman need to accept political reality and accommodate the Greens in some way.
That is what the Tasmanian electorate voted for, given that the two party Lib/Lab style of government has failed to deliver good governance to Tasmania for many years.
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Maybe neither major party will want to govern in such awkward circumstances. Is there any chance at all of a Green minority government, depending on negotiations with both parties to get legislation passed?