|
August 12, 2010
Much to my surprise Tony Abbott has done an excellent job in enabling the Coalition to unify the conservative base (with climate change and boats of refugees) have a fighting chance in this election. The tactics of negation to gain support in the middle of the electoral ground have worked a charm in both spooking Labor, and achieving a shift in the primary vote. All credit to Abbott, despite the scrambling campaigning by Labor.
This has placed the Coalition in the lead at the primary vote level:
Abbott's public image has been remoulded so that he now looks safe, sensible, and a man of the people. That is some turnaround from the "madmonk" by the image makers and Liberal powerbrokers. Is the Coalition ready to govern?
The consensus is that this federal election is similar to what happened in the recent elections in South Australia. In that state the published opinion polls showed a big a swing against Rann Labor. However, when the votes were in Labor retained government in Adelaide, primarily because the Coalition were out-campaigned in the marginals by Labor.
No doubt Labor strategists are sandbagging Labor's marginals in both NSW and Queensland and appealing like crazy to the undecideds in these marginals. Has Abbott made inroads into middle ground here? It seems so. If so how much is the swing in the marghinals? I have no idea. What is happening in the marginals is a black box for me and the media are of little help.
I cannot see that the Coalition strategy of just opposing something Labor has done will do the trick. "End the waste, pay back the debt, stop the big new taxes, and stop the boats" has been the mantra, and it only gets you so far. They are light on real action on policy to take them the next step. I doubt that it can be done by appealing to prejudice, fluff and deception. They need more good policies--like their mental health and and paid parental leave.
Their real action on water is money for irrigators to improve their infrastructure (they are not expected to do it for themselves) with most of the benefits from the efficiency savings going to irrigators. Real action on broadband takes us back to the 20th century. Apart from that what?
We cannot expect much information from the media on what is happening in the marginals. As Michael Gawenda says in One night in Rooty Hill won't kill you in Business Spectator about the journalism of those reporters who are travelling with the leaders:
These reporters are captives, embedded. They do not know, from hour to hour, sometimes from minute to minute, where they are going. They do not know where they will be spending the night. They do not know when they will be asked to be ready to get on the bus for a trip to a place unknown to them. When they are on planes, they do not know, literally, where they will land.What sort of reporting, beyond reporting of the moment, can they be expected to produce? It is hard to see how this reporting could be considered interesting or informative, apart from the unplanned dramatic eruptions – the leaks by the Labor rat, Rudd’s gall bladder problem, his campaign interventions, Latham’s menacing bullying of Gillard.
These reporters are helpless to do much more than go along for the ride, accept the rules of this game and in the main, settle for reporting nothing much of consequence.
Gawenda adds that most election campaigns make virtually no difference to the outcome; the polls at the start of the campaign are usually pretty accurate predictors of the result;and that what is happening in the marginals is a mystery. This is because the mainstream media does not have the resources to cover the local campaigns being waged in these seats in a meaningful way.
|
I understand the crowd angrily booed the NSW state government, according to one newspaper.
NSW will turn on the feds anyway, because of NSW Labor, so that's localised.
Preaching to the converted? Not necessarily if the Tories desperate spinners somehow cook it up as a grassrooots movement.
I just wish the NSW people would take out their justifable anger at state Labor, on state Labor.