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September 7, 2010
I'm finding the responses by the horse race journalists in the Canberra Press Gallery's and their fellow travellers to a hung Parliament, the three regional Independents, the reforms to Parliament and the negotiations to decide a minority government increasingly obnoxious.
In defending the two party system in spite of the fracturing of the body politic they target the Independents (the "Three Amigos",m ) and consistently fail to take their policy concerns about regional Australia seriously.
The Australian's general response, for instance, is to hell with parliamentary reform, another election has be to called right now so that the people get it right this time. Getting it right means a strong executive in a conservative government to reform society so that Australia is an open, pro-business economy. Minority government is simply a recipe for reform paralysis.
Others say the decision needs to be made now. There can be no more delay--even though it is actually the two major parties who are dragging their heels on addressing the policy issues the regional Independents have raised.
One of the more vitriolic responses is Niki Savva's Shackled with a few rogue fence jumpers in The Australian. This is what Savva means by rogue fence jumpers:
There is no misty-eyed rainbow coalition in the making here but one weakened bloc relying on a bunch of misfits, oddballs, rebels, megalomaniacs and ideologues to cling to power. Take your pick which is which.The cocky independents did not care about who had the most seats, who got the most votes, who was ahead in the opinion polls or the fact most people in their electorates voted anyone but Labor. They veered from anxiety attacks to power surges as they tried to decide, and tried to decide on what would make them decide.
Her argument is that with minority government nothing will get down because the three Independents will be overwhelmed.
Every piece of legislation will have to be negotiated through the cocky independents, Andrew Wilkie and or the Greens' Adam Bandt. We could end up with better outcomes. In our dreams. More realistically, nothing much will happen because no agreement can be reached, or we will end up with an even bigger plague of camels. Everyone will have to be around and on the ball all the time, especially the three cockies.
Yet 80% of legislation is passed on a bipartisan basis. The debates and negotiations occur on the contested legislation, which has gone through the committee system that is based around public consultation. None of the regional independents, Andrew Wilkie or the Greens' Adam Bandt had a problem withe national broadband network. They were all in favour of it as they were for more renewable energy.
Update
Bob Katter has decided to support Abbott and the Coalition. He added that if the Coalition did form government he would not be accepting any positions such as a ministry or the Deputy Speaker's position. He has indicated that he may retract his support for the Coalition should Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott decide to go with Labor. If Windsor and Oakeshott go ALP, then Katter stays as Independent in effect.
Another possibility to the one Katter mentioned is Rob Oakeshott lining up to support Gillard Labor, whilst Tony Windsor stays as an Independent supporting supply and only good confidence motions. That would make things nice and tight (75-74) with little room for slippage. Another possibility is for Windsor + Oakeshott to decide to back Gillard (76-74), which is what I reckon will happen because of the stability criteria.
Update 2
Tony Windsor goes for Gillard ALP because of the national broadband network and more renewable energy (in relation to the climate change) for regional Australia. So does Rob Oakeshott. The Gillard Government offered a better deal for regional Australia--a $10 billion regional package and the history of inequity re regional Australia was crucial for both Windsor and Oakeshott. So the national broadband network will go ahead, and we can expect substantial fibre roll-outs to occur around the country over the next 3 years.
The Independent's strategy is to leverage this political situation to address that inequity. The Independent's support is for supply and confidence motions only. Oakeshott appears to have been offered a ministry by Gillard--most likely a regional development ministry.
It is going to be a difficult three years for Gillard Labor --a minority government that is internally fractured; and squeezed between the Greens on the Left and continually firebombed from Abbott + News Ltd on the Right. The Nationals will self-destruct when it is realized that the Independents have gained more for regional Australia in two weeks than the Nationals have in a decade.
The News Ltd narrative will be that Labor will implode and they will be doing everything they can to undermine the Oakeshott and Windsor's support for a minority Labor Government. The talking point for the News Ltd hacks will be that the Greens are the problem. The News Ltd judgement would be that the Coalition would win am majority if there was an early return to the pools.
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I thought the 3 regional Independents have done quite well. They have reformed the House of Representatives and conducted their negotiations for a better deal for regional Australia fairly.
They also examined in detail all the information that would enable them to make a carefully considered decision on which party was best placed to provide stable, competent, outcomes-focused government in the national interest.
In contrast Abbott and the Coalition did not do well in the post-election period. Abbott was too aggressive and angry, engaged in flagrant pork barreling over the Hobart Hospital, and painted scary scenarios of a coalition of Labor and Greens that would be terrible for regional Australia.