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November 27, 2010
I'm in Melbourne for a few days. I will be there for the election, which polling has shown that the ALP is expected to win, through with a reduced majority. Victoria, after all, is a success story, according to Brumpy Labor, and they had been a good government in terms of education, law and order and health. These are the key issues in the election.
I'm in no position to make the judgement call, other than to say that Labor has been in government for a decade or more (three terms)---it's the longest Labor administration in the Victoria's history--- - and that the 'its time' factor must play a significant role. Baggage accumulates.
There is a lot of dissatisfaction with Brumpy Labor --on water, development, public transport--- but I don't know how that will translate into a swing against Labor. That depends on the extent of disillusionment in the electorate.
From what I can gather Labor has built its campaign all around Brumby--just like Kennett did in 1996. They stand or fall with Brumpy and his style of 'strong can do leadership'. That comes across as arrogant--in a kind of get out of my way punk style, which doesn't go down well in some of the outer suburbs of Melbourne confronted by poor public transport.
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We will hold you in our thoughts and prayers.