|
June 9, 2011
The civil war in Libya goes slowly in spite of the western-led NATO military campaign against Gaddafi. The various frontlines are all still some way from Tripoli, where the regime still has a tight grip on the population. Apparently it is just a matter of time before Gaddafi goes since there is a trend of the regime forces being pushed back, v
The latest news is that Gaddafi's forces responded to NATO's intensified aerial bombardment of Tripoli on Tuesday by launching a heavy attack on rebel positions outside the liberated city of Misrata, unleashing a barrage of Grad rockets and mortars against rebel positions to the east, west and south of Misrata early on Wednesday morning, and followed up with an infantry assault.
Steve Bell
It would appear that Turkey's roadmap for peace--- an immediate ceasefire, establishing a humanitarian aid corridor, and starting a process for a new political order in Libya, which means Gaddafi leaving office-- has little traction. There is little indication of a peaceful transition to democracy.
The Arab revolution with its image of a crumbling old order has hit a roadblock in Libya. Gaddafi is proving hard to topple and the US and Europe cannot afford a protracted Libyan civil war, a Libya ruled by a spurned Qaddafi, or a return to the 1990s situation in which multilateral sanctions largely removed Libya from the world economy. Libya's oil is too important for the West and a ceasefire doesn't say geopolitical win.
Though the rebels talk the language of liberal democracy--civil liberties, the rule of law, and democracy---it is the distribution of oil revenues that matter. A state-dominated economy has failed to produce improvements in the standard of living from the 1980s onward.
|
Despite the spin, I don't think the response to Turkey is about Roadmaps to Peace, so much as the tearing up the offending parchment in order that we DON'T reach a "peaceful transition to democracy", at least until big business and the west have secured its oil and discouraged others oppressed by neo colonialism from also resisting.
Which is only restating (hopefully not reducing too much) Gary's comment, on the basis that it deserves reiterating.