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July 4, 2011
Moir's cartoon is misleading as Gillard's political tightrope in the current Parliament is one in which The Greens in the Senate are balanced by the country independents in the House of Representatives. It is not as one sided as Moir represents. What we have in effect is a coalition government between Labor, The Greens and the country independents.
Things will not necessarily return to normal at the next election for the ALP as coalition may well be the future for the Labor party, given that the pattern of it's primary vote ( around 38%) is just not enough for it to form Government in its own right.
The conservative response (ie., that of Liberal /National coalition) to this situation has been that the Gillard Government provides weak leadership because it is beholden to the Greens and to the Independents, and so the Labor government is always giving the appearance of constantly compromising.
Thus Kenneth Wiltshire in Appeasing minorities keeps Julia Gillard off message in The Australian says that he government and its governance:
is not assisted by ministers having to bend to demands from independents and Greens: witness the costly mess that is the NBN and the revival of a telecomminications (sic) monopoly in Australia, in part at least because of the independents' demands for instant broadband in every nook and cranny...how can voters know where Gillard stands, and trust her judgment, when they can see that she is constantly swayed to and fro by her partners in these pacts?...Gillard needs to form a true minority government, develop Labor policies with Labor politicians alone and stand by them, and take them forthrightly into the parliament.
The NBN is a Labor policy that is supported by the Country Independents and opposed by the Liberal/National Coalition.
Secondly, one of those leaks---upon which journalism thrives---about the details of the forthcoming agreement on the carbon tax within the multiparty party committee indicates that the Greens are having to give ground --eg., there is to be no carbon tax on petrol for households, tradies and small businesses. The Greens had wanted petrol covered because transport causes around 17% of Australia's greenhouse gas emissions. They lost. So they cannot be calling the policy shots.
Mungo McCallum at The Drum says that though the Greens have become the dominant minority group in the Senate, replacing the DLP and the Democrats, and look set to hold that position for some time, that's where it begins and ends. he adds:
The Greens are certainly an interesting and dynamic development and will have considerable influence on the future direction of politics in Australia. But under our present structure, within the formal process of government they will seldom have more than nuisance value.
They may be a genuine minority party - but they are a minority, for without the support of one of the major parties they can achieve precisely nothing.
McCallum assumes that Labor can govern on its own in the future. It is that assumption that is questionable.
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Abbott is the human slogan. He has a slogan a week. This week its 'mandate'.