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November 13, 2011
A questioning of the Canberra media's gallery entrenched narrative that Bob Brown is pulling the PM's string, Labor will almost certainly lose the next election, and that Julia Gillard will not be Prime Minister much longer.
In this start of an analysis of the hostility and negativity towards the Gillard Government by Paul Strangio says:
I suspect when we look back at the current era we may come to view it as another such interregnum, as the neo-liberal regime decays and its replacement is yet only dimly grasped...And even if this is not the case, there is a disjunction between the most extravagant criticisms of this government and Australia's relative economic prosperity and stability, especially when viewed in the context of the financial woes and political dysfunction in much of the rest of the world (look no further than the euro zone).
I suspect that Strangio is right---the neo-liberal regime that emerged in the 1980s, and is the cause of a massive upward redistribution of income over the last three decades, is in the process of decay.
That regime structured markets in such a way as to have the effect of redistributing income upward. The global financial crisis gives us an insight here: the government deregulated the finance industry which allowed the banks to make massive profits, then it socialized Wall Street's losses, and the public bears the cost of the bailout through the politics of austerity. That interference with the market is an example of the neo-liberal regime working to structure the free market for the corporate sector.
Dean Baker in his The End of Loser Liberalism has more examples. The political right then presents the imposition of rules that ensure that income flows upward as the natural result of unfettered market forces..
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Things change quickly in politics. Gillard Labor has bottomed out. While she and them took a lot of hits Abbott lacked the knockout punch that would of come if there was a election this month or a couple previous. So in that makes her look a bit of a stayer and him a whiner/dork. Its all about timing as Turnbull would agree while he waits for his possible go. Unfortunately he will always be seen by the undecided and swinging voter as a toff much like Peacock was.
Unlikely i think Gillard will be rolled by next election by anyone in the Labor ranks unless something unforeseen happens like a scandal where she can be shown as dishonest surrounding property dealing by her previous partner pr something alike.
So at this point i am taking the $3.30 on offer by centrebet for Labor to win the next election and will take even money Labor plus 10 seats for the same amount.
With all the talk i am still yet to see the coalition present as a better alternative so i feel with the momentum that Gillard can gather over the xmas period she is a good each way bet.