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February 22, 2012
Rudd has resigned as Foreign Minster. Will this-- a pre-emptive strike by Rudd?---bring the matter---it's personality, ego and power --- to a head?
The cycle of leadership tensions have flowed from when Gillard ousted Rudd and taken the form of an undermining campaign in the media. This has now developed into a crisis consuming the Gillard Government. The shadow boxing is over.
The media has been less than honest about how they as insiders have been part of the campaign run by anonymous sources. They have hidden their role in the media/political nexus, and they have deceived us about what the way they have both been manipulated by Rudd's destabolizing campaign and their role in manufacturing the leadership crisis.
Senior Ministers (Tony Burke, Wayne Swan, and Craig Emerson) are now going public about the extent of the dysfunctionality of the Rudd Government. The ALP needs to sort this real quick--eg., Gillard calling a caucus ballot on Monday--- given the context of the Queensland state election. The federal crisis is currently causing a lot of damage to the Bligh campaign for re-election.
Will Rudd exit Parliament and cause a by-election if he loses? That's hardly likely, as he will be just trashing his significant legacy which he wants to protect. Presumably he would sit on the back bench and continue to stoke the leadership tensions and continue top use the media to destablize the Gillard Government -- that is, adopt a two-part strategy. Leadership challenges in Australia often follow a pattern of an initial assault followed by retreat, regrouping and then a final assault that succeeds.
The problem for Gillard is that Labor's primary vote has been constantly stuck around 30 per cent and the reforms have stirred up resentments and animosity in the electorate. It is likely that this will continue---the Australian people do not approve of Julia Gillard---- and so Rudd's challenge remains alive. Dozens of Labor MPs face an electoral wipeout under Gillard on current polling. So Rudd looks attractive.
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The best scenario would be if the MP's convinced Kevin they were going to vote for him then didnt.
Rudd 15. Gillard. All the rest