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March 25, 2012
Labor now barely exists as a political force in Queensland after the state election. It's the end of an era.It has so few seats---seven or is it six?---that it cannot even be an effective opposition to the triumphant 'can do' Campbell Newman LNP.
The average swing against Labor of 15.8 per cent and the loss of 44 seats will be difficult for the ALP to comprehend. Labor's primary vote across the state was around 26.5 per cent. The defeat claimed most of Labor’s front-bench, as well as the sitting Premier herself.
The constellation of rural and regional conservatives and urban Liberal Party voters is now the dominant majority in Queensland politics. Within that political constellation the urban Liberal Party is now dominate.
You would have to say that Labor has big problems on its hands. It was such a massacre that it could be 12 years before Queensland Labor becomes an effective political opposition. With no upper house Campbell Newman has a blank cheque to do what he likes.
Update
In New Matilda Ben Eltham refers to Queensland Labor's heritage. He says that:
Compared to the Bjelke-Peterson government, therefore, Labor has governed substantially better and more competently, dragging the state into the 21st century. South-east Queensland, in particular, became a more normal place, more like the rest of Australia, with normal problems like traffic congestion, rather than special problems like a compromised police force. In the end, it started to experience more normal politics, too, with voters gradually forgetting the Bjelke-Peterson years, and focusing instead on Labor’s shortcomings.
How much will the conservatives wind the clock back? Will they try?
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I believe Labor's problems are terminal; it was a creation of the union movement and has not been able to remake itself as a viable institution since the union movement collapsed. Trying to be Liberal-lite just hasn't worked; most people will lean towards the real thing instead of a pale substitute. Rudd's 2007 victory can now be seen as an aberration and not the start of a Labor revival.
The sooner Labor implodes the better. Fervent appeals to the ghosts of Curtin and Chifley will serve no more purpose than appointing burnt-out state premiers as Foreign Minister. Leaving Labor to a handful of Neanderthals to play with* will allow a new progressive movement to evolve. In the mean time we can only look forward to a long period of conservative government at state and federal level.
*Example: 'Labor factional heavyweight Bill Ludwig blamed the men of Queensland for Ms Bligh's loss and warned Ms Gillard would similarly struggle to find support in his state.
'''The blokes here just don't like women, especially women in charge,'' Mr Ludwig said. ''The federal election is a long way off, it's different circumstances, but I don't think the blokes like Julia either. The men of Queensland are just very negative towards women.'''