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July 21, 2012
Let's hope that the voters of Melbourne decide that the Greens deserve the Victorian seat of Melbourne in the by-election held today.
The by-election has been sucked into the vortex of national politics with the Canberra press gallery journalists indulging in their h overheated rhetoric with its federal implications.The shock waves will be felt in Canberra, Gillard will be further weakened, and the ALP will face an existential crisis.
The end of Gillard Labor is written into the basic structure of the world is the Gallery's basic narrative, and every event that happens is fitted into this frame as they act to fan the flames. So what happens if the ALP narrowly wins the Melbourne by-election?
David Rowe
The Canberra media gallery appears to have forgotten that the Greens came within 2.0% in both 2002 and 2006 before being shot down by Liberal preferences in 2010. So the suggestion that a Green win this time should in and of itself cause “shock waves” is pure media spin. Is this the hand of the NSW Right being played?
My gut feeling is that the Greens will out poll the ALP in primary votes but the ALP will recover the lost ground through preferences from the smaller parties. These mostly favor the ALP, due to it securing the political deals that will probably allow it to scramble over the line. If it wins then it went into the election with very limited policies and comes out as just a political machine to gain and retain power.
If Labor wins narrowly, what does that say about the Canberra Gallery's theory of a big shock wave in Canberra? No doubt the journalists will continue to fan the flames of leadership turmoil for this is the only game in town for them.
The real problem for the ALP is its toxic, corrupt culture ----eg., the HSU scandal and its support for poker machines--- and that is not going away. It is what Labor is. The Greens, in contrast, stand by their principled position on pokies and genuine support for transparency, good governance and fair campaigning.
Update
It looks as if the Greens will have to rely on increasing their primary vote to win the inner city seats in capitol seats, since it looks as if the Labor and Liberal parties will close ranks against them and preference one another. An article in the AFR by Nick Economou says that:
the implication of the byelection result is clearly that the Greens vote has peaked in inner Melbourne. If the best the Greens can muster in inner Melbourne is 37 per cent of the vote, Bandt may not be able to retain his seat at the next election....The byelection tells the Greens that, while their vote may have peaked in inner Melbourne, it certainly is not falling and expectations of upper house success in Victoria and beyond should remain high.
The implication is drawn by an editorial in The Australian--- the by-election confirms Greens' status as a protest party on the fringes, with no serious hope of governing.
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"My gut feeling is that the Greens will out poll the ALP in primary votes but the ALP will recover the lost ground through preferences from the smaller parties'
Looks like a good call.
It looks like Labor will win -narrowly - with the Greens getting more primary votes but less preferences from the other dozen or so candidates. It appears that the swing to the Greens overall will be in the vicinity of 5% to 6% which despite losing will be pleasing. Labor will be happy with the [probable] win.
The media will claim, contrary to common sense, that both lost.