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IPCC:--Australia's future « Previous | |Next »
September 28, 2013

The IPPC report is basically yet more evidence demonstrating the extent of global temperature rises, the melting of ice sheets and sea ice, the retreat of the glaciers, the rising and acidification of the oceans and the changes in weather patterns. It is the first sliver of a vast body of work on climate change that’ll be published this year and in 2014--the so-called fifth assessment report (AR5), which focuses on the scientific evidence behind climate change and the human role in it.

RowsonMIPCC.jpg
Martin Rowson

The report concludes that there is a 50-50 chance that global temperatures will exceed 4C this century if carbon emissions are not curbed. Without "substantial and sustained" reductions in greenhouse gas emissions we will breach the symbolic threshold of 2C of warming.

To hold warming to 2C, total emissions cannot exceed 1,000 gigatons of carbon. Yet by 2011, more than half of that total "allowance" – 531 gigatons – had already been emitted.To ensure the budget is not exceeded, governments and businesses may have to leave valuable fossil fuel reserves unexploited because there's a finite amount of carbon you can burn if you don't want to go over 2C.

Australia is going to be badly hit according to Oliver Milman, whose summary of what the report says, states:

Australia is expected to experience a 6C average temperature rise on its hottest days and lose many reptile, bird and mammal species as well as the renowned wetlands of Kakadu by the end of the century, the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report reveals.IPCC figures show that Australia will experience an average overall increase of 2C by 2065, with that figure slightly lower at the coast. Beyond that, the temperature is expected to rise another 3C-4C by 2100. The number of days that don't fall below 20C is projected to rise to 100 a year, with most of these warmer days in the north and on the east coast.

Rainfall patterns are set to change, with annual precipitation, humidity and cloud cover predicted to decrease over most of Australia. But for north Australia and many agricultural areas, rainfall is predicted to get heavier. Soil moisture will decrease, mostly in the south of the country.

The Coalition government will say that its direct action plan is doing something to avert the scenario the panel foresees, but it will continue to actively promoting the fossil fuel industries industries that cause it.

| Posted by Gary Sauer-Thompson at 5:04 PM | | Comments (8)
Comments

Comments

Well it seems now that I have the best scientific proof to disbelieve that humans are to blame for global warming I have a license to stand in the 5% zone. hahaha what a bunch of twats. Cant even stand by their beliefs and knowledge.

Apparently the conservative anti-cliamte science groups are running a campaign along the lines that the IPCC report doesn't have all the science to make informed judgments.

They are arguing that today's climate changes are well within the bounds of natural variability.

The denialists base their argument on real observations in opposition to the IPCC's speculative computer models. The latter don't work.

Real world observations tell us that ice is not melting at an enhanced rate, sea-level rise is not accelerating, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events is not increasing, and dangerous global warming is not occurring.

Their aim is to keep the debate alive in order to cast doubt on the science of climate change and the need for policies to curb emissions.

The denialists say that global warming, may become a problem some decades in the future, but it is not a crisis and is highly unlikely to become a crisis.

They add that the alarmist establishment continues using junk science to promote disastrous policies that will make us poorer. Perpetual poverty will be the new normal.

This kind of response is just noise and should be treated as such.

The denialists simply refuse to accept that humanity is changing weather systems.

The campaign is run by rightwing thinktanks, often backed by oil and energy corporations, who have funded lobbyists. The latter question every statement made by government scientists, in order to help to paralyse the nation's political ability to tackle climate change.

"The denialists base their argument on real observations in opposition to the IPCC's speculative computer models."

The industry-funded climate change deniers say that the IPCC has exaggerated the evidence when the IPCC has been overly conservative in its assessment of the science and the unprecedented nature of recent warming-- the modern warming spike is without precedent for at least the past 1,400 years.

In the "up is down, black is white" bizarro world of climate change denial
this warming becomes global cooling.

The denialists campaign against global warming is based on misdirection, cherry-picking, half-truths and outright falsehoods.

It's smoke and mirrors . The core message of the latest IPCC report is that: climate change is real and caused by humans, and it continues unabated. We will see far more dangerous and potentially irreversible impacts in the decades ahead if we do not choose to reduce global carbon emissions.

Even where Coalition politicians, business leaders and media commentators do not reject the existence of man-made climate change outright, they have sought to embrace the likes of Denmark’s Bjorn Lomborg, who argues that action is not urgent and solutions should be put back into the test-tube.