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July 30, 2004
There is an article The Australian by Peter van Onselen, a lecturer in political science at Edith Cowan University, which spells out the marginal seat situation in WA. He says that this year's election will be close, but challenges the assumption of a uniform swing across the nation, or the ALP winning because of its preference lead in the western suburbs of Sydney.What we do know is that this election is close so it will revert to trench warfare in the marginals, as Labor tries to claw back the dozen or so seats it needs to govern in its own right.
The ALP is saying that it can hang onto its maginal seats in WA bag two from the Coalition and increase its seven seats to nine. It has the weaponry etc etc.
We need to step away from the spin. van Onselen identifies 4 marginal seats in WA:
"Perth houses four marginal seats - Canning, Sterling (sic), Hasluck and Swan. Interestingly, only the first of these is held by the Coalition. The other three, all with margins of 2 per cent or less, are Labor seats. Simply put, Howard believes he can pick up Labor seats in the west. Why does Howard believe that?"
The answer has to do with the parochialism of WA. The change in the ALP leadership from Beazley to anyone from a state other than WA was bound to carry the risk of Labor losing seats in the west, whether the leader was Crean or Latham. The Beazley factor is crucial. Hence the return of Beazley to the front bench can only benefit the federal ALP in WA.
So where does that leave the ALP? van Onselen goes on to say:
"Labor insiders have noted that the ALP can't win this year's federal election in the west, it can only lose it. Equally, Coalition strategists have been targeting Perth Labor marginals for some time. Howard's trip to WA this week is his fourth this year. Factor in the unpopularity of the Gallop Labor Government and WA is a soft target for the Coalition."
That Howard is spending so much time in the West is an indication of party polling revealing an opportunity to catch Labor napping. The ALP has taken their eye off WA?
Do we give Canning to the Coalition? Where does that leave Stirling, Hasluck and Swan? With the ALP hanging on after a grim struggle? Howard reckons he has a chance in Hasluck, with its margin for the ALP of 1.78 per cent.
This is the possibility canvassed by van Onselen:
"If the election is tight, it may be that Latham thinks he has won the prime ministership, picking up enough seats in NSW, Queensland and South Australia early in the count. But if Howard wins all three Labor held marginals in Perth, that could deliver him a narrow fourth term majority."
WA is even less on on the radar screen of most national commentators than SA. I have very little knowledge of the current issues in the ALP marginals. They are urban seats, and so their issues would be quite different from the those in the marginals along the Queensland coast.
In the latter there is a cocktail of rural discontent over globalization, competition policy and deregulation, the ongoing rationalization of the farm sector and the decline in the services in the bush. This political backlash, which generated the populist protest of Pauline Hanson in the 1990s, places the National Party under threat.
So what is going on in Perth's marginal seats in terms of issues? It cannot be all about the Beazley factor, given that all politics is local.
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This has got to be one of the most interesting contests in this election.
Here's hoping!